Week 5 report · Fri, Oct 2 · 2026 Week 5
Pittsburgh
5–3 · Ours #42 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–33FinalWe had PITT 25 – VT 25
Virginia Tech
6–2 · Ours #40 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.VT 50%PITT won
VT 50%PITT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at VT −5.5.VT −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · PITT covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.9.54.5final 68 · over by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.PITT +3.5Wbeat the close by 1.5
PITT +3.5Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Mason Heintschel10/18 · 113 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5587th pct
- Comp %
- 55.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Holden Geriner
Ethan Grunkemeyer30/41 · 434 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2162nd pct
- Comp %
- 73.2
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Pittsburghoffense | Played like VT +2.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVirginia Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | 30.0%▼14.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.0%▲10.9 | 87th |
| 62nd | +0.13▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.06 | 38th |
| 62nd | +0.18▲0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.16 | 38th |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.02 | 46th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Virginia Techoffense | defensePittsburgh | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | 40.8%▼2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.8%▼4.4 | 55th |
| 55th | +0.08▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.06 | 45th |
| 65th | +0.21▲0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.06 | 35th |
| 28th | −0.11▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.11▼0.02 | 72nd |
| 4th | 3▼3.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.8 | 96th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| PittsburghPITT | Virginia TechVT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3689th | Own 2952nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −2.1 pts10th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.621st | +10.679th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.8 pts12th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PITT +10.6: turnovers +10.4, field position +2.6, kicking +1.5, 4th downs −1.8, penalty first downs +0.8, safeties −2.9. | +10.691st | −10.69th |
Season so far
Pittsburgh5–3 · 44th-hardest schedule
W
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5W
vs UCF12–7missed −7
vs UCF12–7missed −7W
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5Wvs Bucknell59–0covered −54.5
Wat Virginia Tech35–33covered +2
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2L
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5L
at Boston College21–27missed −6.5
at Boston College21–27missed −6.5L
at Miami23–52missed +20.5
at Miami23–52missed +20.5Virginia Tech6–2 · 100th-hardest schedule
Wvs VMI73–3covered −54.5
W
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5W
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5Wat Boston College21–14missed −14.5
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5Lvs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2L
at California20–25missed −10
at California20–25missed −10W
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5W
at Clemson20–16covered +3
at Clemson20–16covered +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 2, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is