Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Virginia Tech
6–2 · Ours #51 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–16FinalWe had VT 26 – CLEM 25
Clemson
4–3 · Ours #52 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.VT 54%VT won
VT 54%VT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at CLEM −2.5.CLEM −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1.4 · VT covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.6.50.5final 36 · under by 14.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.VT +2.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
VT +2.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Ethan Grunkemeyer20/32 · 156 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1526th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Tait Reynolds20/26 · 153 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1923rd pct
- Comp %
- 76.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Virginia Techoffense | Played evenFitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseClemson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27th | 35.7%▼8.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.7%▲6.6 | 73rd |
| 23rd | −0.13▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.10 | 77th |
| 25th | −0.20▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.01 | 75th |
| 37th | −0.04▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.16 | 63rd |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Clemsonoffense | defenseVirginia Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.1%▲4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.1%▲2.6 | 68th |
| 20th | −0.16▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.27 | 80th |
| 25th | −0.19▲0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.28 | 75th |
| 25th | −0.13▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.22 | 75th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Virginia TechVT | ClemsonCLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2630th | Own 3272nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.8 pts91st | +2.4 pts98th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7081st | 6260th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −1.047th | +1.053rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.8 pts12th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. VT +1.7: field position −2.3, kicking −0.5, 4th downs +1.4, penalty first downs +3.1. | +1.759th | −1.741st |
Season so far
Virginia Tech6–2 · 100th-hardest schedule
Wvs VMI73–3covered −54.5
W
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5W
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5W
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5L
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2L
at California20–25missed −10
at California20–25missed −10W
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5Wat Clemson20–16covered +3
at Clemson20–16covered +3Clemson4–3 · 26th-hardest schedule
L
at LSU10–51missed +10
at LSU10–51missed +10W
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3Wat California24–10covered −2.5
at California24–10covered −2.5L
vs Miami13–41missed +14
vs Miami13–41missed +14Wvs Charleston Southern37–0missed −42.5
Lvs Virginia Tech16–20missed −3
vs Virginia Tech16–20missed −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is