Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Virginia Tech
6–2 · Ours #32 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–14FinalWe had VT 36 – BC 20
Boston College
4–4 · Ours #121 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.VT 83%VT won
VT 83%VT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at VT −14.VT −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.8 · BC covered by 7.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.7.46.5final 35 · under by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Ethan Grunkemeyer22/35 · 147 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3710th pct
- Comp %
- 62.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Mason McKenzie11/23 · 111 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.447th pct
- Comp %
- 47.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Virginia Techoffense | Played like BC +4.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBoston College | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.4%▲0.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.4%▼2.3 | 44th |
| 15th | −0.20▼0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.21 | 85th |
| 13th | −0.37▼0.53 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.37▲0.43 | 87th |
| 38th | −0.04▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.01 | 62nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.6 | 21st |
| Boston Collegeoffense | defenseVirginia Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31st | 36.7%▼5.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.7%▲3.1 | 69th |
| 31st | −0.08▼0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.17 | 70th |
| 9th | −0.44▼0.44 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.44▲0.56 | 91st |
| 73rd | +0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.17 | 28th |
| 79th | 0▲1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Virginia TechVT | Boston CollegeBC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3375th | Own 2845th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.2 pts80th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7693rd | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.956th | −1.945th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.2 pts4th | 0.0 pts41st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. VT +2.6: field position +1.7, kicking +0.8, 4th downs −1.5, penalty first downs +1.5. | +2.663rd | −2.637th |
Season so far
Virginia Tech6–2 · 100th-hardest schedule
Wvs VMI73–3covered −54.5
W
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5W
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5Wat Boston College21–14missed −14.5
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5L
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2L
at California20–25missed −10
at California20–25missed −10W
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5W
at Clemson20–16covered +3
at Clemson20–16covered +3Boston College4–4 · 52nd-hardest schedule
L
at Cincinnati15–34missed +7
at Cincinnati15–34missed +7W
vs Rutgers28–21covered −3
vs Rutgers28–21covered −3Wvs Maine22–16missed −37.5
Lvs Virginia Tech14–21covered +14.5
vs Virginia Tech14–21covered +14.5L
at SMU16–25covered +21.5
at SMU16–25covered +21.5Wvs Pittsburgh27–21covered +6.5
vs Pittsburgh27–21covered +6.5Wat Georgia Tech49–27covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech49–27covered +6.5L
at Duke2–47missed +7
at Duke2–47missed +7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is