Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Georgia Tech
2–5 · Ours #68 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–34FinalWe had GT 25 – VT 31
Virginia Tech
6–2 · Ours #52 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.VT 65%VT won
VT 65%VT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at VT −9.5.VT −8.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.2 · VT covered by 1.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.6.56final 58 · over by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.GT +9.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
GT +9.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Alberto Mendoza29/38 · 335 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4178th pct
- Comp %
- 76.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Ethan Grunkemeyer15/22 · 250 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3273rd pct
- Comp %
- 68.2
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia Techoffense | Played like GT +6.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVirginia Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 45.6%▲2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.6%▼7.3 | 36th |
| 80th | +0.29▲0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.25 | 20th |
| 73rd | +0.29▲0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.29 | 27th |
| 82nd | +0.27▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.25 | 18th |
| 41st | 1▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
| Virginia Techoffense | defenseGeorgia Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54th | 42.6%▼0.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.6%▲2.5 | 46th |
| 60th | +0.12▲0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.13 | 40th |
| 75th | +0.32▲0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.11 | 25th |
| 37th | −0.04▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.26 | 63rd |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia TechGT | Virginia TechVT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3060th | Own 3374th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.1 pts10th | +1.0 pts74th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5745th | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +5.266th | −5.234th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.8 pts89th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. VT +7.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +0.9, kicking +2.2, 4th downs +1.0, penalty first downs −2.3. | −7.020th | +7.080th |
Season so far
Georgia Tech2–5 · 49th-hardest schedule
L
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5L
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12Wvs Mercer44–11missed −38.5
L
at Stanford27–34missed −3
at Stanford27–34missed −3W
vs Duke28–25covered +4.5
vs Duke28–25covered +4.5Lat Virginia Tech24–34missed +8.5
at Virginia Tech24–34missed +8.5L
vs Boston College27–49missed −6.5
vs Boston College27–49missed −6.5Virginia Tech6–2 · 100th-hardest schedule
Wvs VMI73–3covered −54.5
W
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5W
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5Wat Boston College21–14missed −14.5
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5L
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2L
at California20–25missed −10
at California20–25missed −10Wvs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5W
at Clemson20–16covered +3
at Clemson20–16covered +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is