Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Arkansas
3–4 · Ours #49 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–43FinalWe had ARK 23 – UTAH 37
AP #20Utah
8–0 · Ours #19 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTAH 80%UTAH won
UTAH 80%UTAH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTAH −11.5.UTAH −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.9 · UTAH covered by 19.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 60.4.55.5final 53 · under by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARK +11.5Llost 2.0 to the close
ARK +11.5Llost 2.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
KJ Jackson14/34 · 139 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1724th pct
- Comp %
- 41.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q4 by AJ Hill
Devon Dampier18/24 · 261 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2868th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansasoffense | Played like UTAH +39.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUtah | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 29.3%▼12.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.3%▲7.0 | 88th |
| 20th | −0.16▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.06 | 80th |
| 31st | −0.13▼0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.02 | 69th |
| 18th | −0.21▼0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.12 | 82nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Utahoffense | defenseArkansas | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94th | 60.0%▲10.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 60.0%▼15.6 | 6th |
| 97th | +0.55▲0.43 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.55▼0.45 | 3rd |
| 85th | +0.48▲0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.48▼0.48 | 15th |
| 98th | +0.62▲0.58 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.62▼0.46 | 2nd |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ArkansasARK | UtahUTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2416th | Own 3790th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.3 pts19th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4118th | 3511th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −27.23rd | +27.297th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts89th | −0.1 pts40th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UTAH +5.1: field position +4.5, kicking +0.9, 4th downs −1.1, penalty first downs +0.8. | −5.127th | +5.173rd |
Season so far
Arkansas3–4 · 5th-hardest schedule
Wvs North Alabama31–14missed −40.5
Lat Utah10–43missed +13.5
at Utah10–43missed +13.5L
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5W
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7L
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5L
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5W
at Vanderbilt31–21covered +5.5
at Vanderbilt31–21covered +5.5Utah8–0 · 57th-hardest schedule
Wvs Idaho66–14covered −37.5
Wvs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-game
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5W
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5W
vs Kansas41–24covered −16
vs Kansas41–24covered −16W
at Colorado27–24missed −15.5
at Colorado27–24missed −15.5W
vs Houston21–13covered −6.5
vs Houston21–13covered −6.5W
at Cincinnati49–25covered −7
at Cincinnati49–25covered −7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is