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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Arkansas

3–4 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
−1.1
Rank
74
Résumé
78
Projected wins
4.1▼ 0.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5North AlabamaNorth AlabamaARK −30.6ARK −40.5W 31–1466
Sat, Sep 129/12at UtahUTAHARK +13.9ARK +11.5L 10–4312ARK · L
Sat, Sep 199/19GeorgiaUGAARK +26.9ARK +24.5L 17–4516UGA · W
Sat, Sep 269/26TulsaTLSAARK −13.3ARK −9.5W 34–653ARK · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at Texas A&MTA&MARK +15.2ARK +14.0L 7–3423TA&M · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10TennesseeTENNARK +10.8ARK +13.5L 17–2444ARK · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at VanderbiltVANARK +6.0ARK +6.0W 31–2165ARK · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31MissouriMIZARK +12.8ARK +10.0MIZ −9.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at AuburnAUBARK +11.4—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14South CarolinaSCARK +6.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TexasTEXARK +18.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28LSULSUARK +18.2—wk 13

Model on ARK games: 5–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 2–1 · home 3–0, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.4 · closer than the market 5 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.13–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.3
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.03118th
Success rate42.9%68th
Pass EPA−0.01105th
Rush EPA−0.04119th
Explosive rate9.8%128th
Quality-drive rate48.5%87th
Points per quality drive3.699th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0993rd
Success allowed43.8%99th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0439th
Rush EPA allowed+0.21132nd
Explosive allowed13.9%113th
Havoc rate13.6%77th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.9102nd
Turnover margin−3101st · exp. +1.0
Field position margin0.0 yd75th
Hidden points / game+1.2banked
Luck, wins+0.03.0 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 4–3
Rush rate over expected−4.1%100th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.174th
Schedule played+9.46th
Schedule remaining+13.71st
Full schedule+11.41st
Pregame expected wins2.5of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 74th · −1.1Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUARKgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Arkansasoff −0.03 118thdef +0.09 allowed · 93rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.