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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Colorado

3–5 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
−3.1
Rank
84
Résumé
95
Projected wins
3.5▼ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3at Georgia TechGTCOLO +12.7COLO +6.5W 14–1348GT · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Weber StateWeber StateCOLO −38.0COLO −38.5W 52–2187
Sat, Sep 199/19at NorthwesternNUCOLO +6.4COLO +3.5L 7–4132COLO · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at BaylorBAYCOLO +12.7COLO +6.5L 13–2357BAY · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Texas TechTTUCOLO +14.0COLO +13.0L 7–2950TTU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17UtahUTAHCOLO +25.0COLO +15.5L 24–2755UTAH · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Oklahoma StateOKSTCOLO +10.9COLO +13.5L 24–5752COLO · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31Kansas StateKSUCOLO +7.4COLO +2.5W 27–2459KSU · L
Sat, Nov 711/7at Arizona StateASUCOLO +6.2—wk 10
Fri, Nov 1311/13HoustonHOUCOLO +15.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at CincinnatiCINCOLO +10.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28UCFUCFCOLO +5.2—wk 13

Model on COLO games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–3 · as the dog 0–2 · home 1–1, away 1–4 · avg gap to the market +5.0 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.53–5 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.8
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 0.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0774th
Success rate40.7%100th
Pass EPA+0.1551st
Rush EPA−0.02112th
Explosive rate14.1%34th
Quality-drive rate36.7%133rd
Points per quality drive3.3117th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0155th
Success allowed40.6%60th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0985th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0914th
Explosive allowed13.3%100th
Havoc rate18.1%11th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−5.1137th
Turnover margin−7124th · exp. −8.5
Field position margin−6.6 yd136th
Hidden points / game−7.3gave up
Luck, wins0.03.0 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected−3.2%89th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−3.184th
Schedule played+7.712th
Schedule remaining+3.156th
Full schedule+6.023rd
Pregame expected wins1.4of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 84th · −3.1Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCOLOgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Coloradooff +0.07 74thdef +0.01 allowed · 55th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.