Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
AP #11Utah
8–0 · Ours #6 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–24FinalWe had UTAH 39 – COLO 14
Colorado
3–5 · Ours #93 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTAH 93%UTAH won
UTAH 93%UTAH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTAH −16.5.UTAH −15.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −25 · COLO covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.1.49.5final 51 · over by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Devon Dampier24/41 · 278 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0342nd pct
- Comp %
- 58.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Isaac Wilson17/30 · 241 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0747th pct
- Comp %
- 56.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utahoffense | Played like COLO +2.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseColorado | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48th | 41.2%▼11.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.2%▼0.6 | 53rd |
| 41st | −0.01▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.02 | 59th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.16 | 53rd |
| 37th | −0.04▼0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.09 | 63rd |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.6 | 85th |
| Coloradooffense | defenseUtah | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 37.0%▼4.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.0%▼2.0 | 68th |
| 50th | +0.05▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.19 | 50th |
| 51st | +0.07▲0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.21 | 49th |
| 49th | +0.03▲0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.16 | 51st |
| 15th | 2▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UtahUTAH | ColoradoCOLO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2955th | Own 2634th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.7 pts67th | +0.5 pts60th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8096th | 5438th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.838th | +3.862nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UTAH +0.8: field position +1.0, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs −0.8. | +0.854th | −0.847th |
Season so far
Utah8–0 · 57th-hardest schedule
Wvs Idaho66–14covered −37.5
W
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-game
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5W
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5W
vs Kansas41–24covered −16
vs Kansas41–24covered −16Wat Colorado27–24missed −15.5
at Colorado27–24missed −15.5W
vs Houston21–13covered −6.5
vs Houston21–13covered −6.5W
at Cincinnati49–25covered −7
at Cincinnati49–25covered −7Colorado3–5 · 12th-hardest schedule
W
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5Wvs Weber State52–21missed −38.5
L
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5L
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-game
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5Lvs Utah24–27covered +15.5
vs Utah24–27covered +15.5L
at Oklahoma State24–57missed +13.5
at Oklahoma State24–57missed +13.5W
vs Kansas State27–24push −3
vs Kansas State27–24push −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is