Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
AP #14Houston
6–2 · Ours #29 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–21FinalWe had HOU 25 – UTAH 33
AP #10Utah
8–0 · Ours #9 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTAH 70%UTAH won
UTAH 70%UTAH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTAH −6.UTAH −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.3 · UTAH covered by 1.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.9.57final 34 · under by 23
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UTAH −6.5Wmatched the close
UTAH −6.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Conner Weigman19/35 · 282 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1426th pct
- Comp %
- 54.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Devon Dampier18/26 · 204 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0949th pct
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Houstonoffense | Played like UTAH +17.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUtah | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 40.0%▼12.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▼5.5 | 58th |
| 28th | −0.09▼0.33 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▼0.02 | 72nd |
| 29th | −0.15▼0.61 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.04 | 71st |
| 42nd | −0.01▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.11 | 58th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Utahoffense | defenseHouston | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.5%▲2.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.5%▼8.0 | 16th |
| 73rd | +0.22▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.06 | 27th |
| 53rd | +0.09▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.15 | 47th |
| 86th | +0.32▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.31 | 14th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| HoustonHOU | UtahUTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2417th | Own 2520th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.3 pts81st | −2.5 pts6th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −20.68th | +20.692nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts6th | −0.2 pts34th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HOU +3.3: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.2, kicking +2.6, 4th downs −1.0, penalty first downs −0.8. | +3.367th | −3.333rd |
Season so far
Houston6–2 · 27th-hardest schedule
W
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21Wvs Southern77–6covered −52
L
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5W
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5W
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5W
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5W
vs Oklahoma State35–32missed −3.5
vs Oklahoma State35–32missed −3.5Lat Utah13–21missed +6.5
at Utah13–21missed +6.5Utah8–0 · 57th-hardest schedule
Wvs Idaho66–14covered −37.5
W
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-game
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5W
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5W
vs Kansas41–24covered −16
vs Kansas41–24covered −16W
at Colorado27–24missed −15.5
at Colorado27–24missed −15.5Wvs Houston21–13covered −6.5
vs Houston21–13covered −6.5W
at Cincinnati49–25covered −7
at Cincinnati49–25covered −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is