Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Syracuse
4–4 · Ours #80 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
42–41FinalWe had SYR 24 – CONN 31
UConn
4–4 · Ours #64 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CONN 68%SYR won
CONN 68%SYR wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SYR −6.SYR −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +7.5 · CONN covered by 5.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.8.51.5final 83 · over by 31.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Amari Odom27/37 · 335 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1151st pct
- Comp %
- 73.0
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Kalieb Osborne20/40 · 401 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1151st pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Syracuseoffense | Played like CONN +6.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUConn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79th | 50.6%▲10.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.6%▼9.4 | 21st |
| 46th | +0.03▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.03 | 54th |
| 54th | +0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.05 | 46th |
| 39th | −0.04▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.06 | 61st |
| 15th | 2▼0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.4 | 85th |
| UConnoffense | defenseSyracuse | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.5%▼0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.5%▲1.5 | 47th |
| 71st | +0.20▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.17 | 29th |
| 36th | −0.07▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.04 | 64th |
| 97th | +0.57▲0.41 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.57▼0.48 | 3rd |
| 15th | 2▼1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.4 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| SyracuseSYR | UConnCONN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3584th | Own 3375th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −4.0 pts2nd | −2.3 pts8th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7794th | 7387th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.555th | −1.545th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 799th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.3 pts97th | +0.6 pts86th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CONN +2.0: field position −0.7, kicking +1.2, 4th downs −0.8, penalty first downs +2.3. | −2.039th | +2.061st |
Season so far
Syracuse4–4 · 47th-hardest schedule
Wvs New Hampshire66–3covered −35.5
L
vs California18–21missed −3.5
vs California18–21missed −3.5L
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5Wat UConn42–41missed −6.5
at UConn42–41missed −6.5L
at Virginia25–28covered +14
at Virginia25–28covered +14L
vs Louisville26–34covered +14.5
vs Louisville26–34covered +14.5W
at North Carolina31–30covered +9.5
at North Carolina31–30covered +9.5W
vs SMU30–27covered +9.5
vs SMU30–27covered +9.5UConn4–4 · 119th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lafayette56–7covered −21
L
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5W
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3L
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5Lvs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5W
at Temple34–20covered +3.5
at Temple34–20covered +3.5W
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13L
at Air Force26–35missed −1
at Air Force26–35missed −1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is