Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Maryland
2–6 · Ours #71 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–14FinalWe had MD 26 – CONN 31
UConn
4–4 · Ours #52 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CONN 61%MD won
CONN 61%MD wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MD −13.5.MD −11.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +4.7 · MD covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.6.52.5final 52 · under by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CONN +13Lbeat the close by 1.5
CONN +13Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Malik Washington34/41 · 347 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3776th pct
- Comp %
- 82.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Kalieb Osborne10/21 · 156 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2319th pct
- Comp %
- 47.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Marylandoffense | Played like MD +17.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUConn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81st | 51.6%▲17.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.6%▼10.6 | 19th |
| 73rd | +0.22▲0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.20 | 27th |
| 80th | +0.38▲0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.29 | 20th |
| 36th | −0.05▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.05▼0.04 | 64th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| UConnoffense | defenseMaryland | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27th | 35.6%▼9.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.6%▲11.9 | 73rd |
| 24th | −0.12▼0.33 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.30 | 76th |
| 36th | −0.07▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.15 | 64th |
| 22nd | −0.16▼0.47 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.46 | 78th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MarylandMD | UConnCONN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3790th | Own 2631st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.2 pts9th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6466th | 4524th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.673rd | −7.627th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts32nd | −0.8 pts11th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MD +7.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.8, kicking −1.6, 4th downs +0.7, penalty first downs +2.3. | +7.983rd | −7.917th |
Season so far
Maryland2–6 · 22nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Hampton62–0covered −45.5
Wat UConn38–14covered −11.5
at UConn38–14covered −11.5L
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5L
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5L
at Nebraska23–48missed +15
at Nebraska23–48missed +15L
at Ohio State16–45covered +31
at Ohio State16–45covered +31L
vs Rutgers30–37missed −6
vs Rutgers30–37missed −6L
vs Illinois17–20missed +2.5
vs Illinois17–20missed +2.5UConn4–4 · 119th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lafayette56–7covered −21
Lvs Maryland14–38missed +11.5
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5W
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3L
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5L
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5W
at Temple34–20covered +3.5
at Temple34–20covered +3.5W
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13L
at Air Force26–35missed −1
at Air Force26–35missed −1Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is