Week 8 report · Fri, Oct 23 · 2026 Week 8
Massachusetts
4–4 · Ours #115 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–35FinalWe had MASS 20 – CONN 39
UConn
4–4 · Ours #59 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CONN 88%CONN won
CONN 88%CONN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at CONN −16.5.CONN −13oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.3 · CONN covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.8.53final 51 · under by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CONN −15.5Wlost 2.5 to the close
CONN −15.5Wlost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
William Watson III22/38 · 205 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0634th pct
- Comp %
- 57.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Kalieb Osborne14/19 · 173 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0634th pct
- Comp %
- 73.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Massachusettsoffense | Played like CONN +16.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUConn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11th | 28.6%▼15.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.6%▲17.0 | 90th |
| 16th | −0.19▼0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.29 | 84th |
| 38th | −0.06▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.24 | 62nd |
| 3rd | −0.52▼0.53 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.52▲0.52 | 97th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| UConnoffense | defenseMassachusetts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41st | 39.7%▼4.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.7%▲3.3 | 59th |
| 57th | +0.10▼0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.10 | 43rd |
| 37th | −0.06▼0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.07 | 63rd |
| 72nd | +0.20▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.10 | 28th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MassachusettsMASS | UConnCONN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2417th | Own 3378th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.2 pts52nd | −2.0 pts11th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5643rd | 6363rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.742nd | +2.758th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts37th | −0.1 pts40th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CONN +9.1: field position +3.2, kicking −1.5, 4th downs +0.1, penalty first downs +3.1, return touchdowns +4.2. | −9.114th | +9.186th |
Season so far
Massachusetts4–4 · 137th-hardest schedule
W
at Rutgers37–21covered +29
at Rutgers37–21covered +29Wvs Sacred Heart37–10covered −23.5
Wvs Stonehill36–14missed −31
W
at Sacramento State35–6covered −5
at Sacramento State35–6covered −5L
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5L
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5L
at Buffalo18–25push +7
at Buffalo18–25push +7Lat UConn16–35missed +13
at UConn16–35missed +13UConn4–4 · 119th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lafayette56–7covered −21
L
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5W
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3Lat Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5L
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5W
at Temple34–20covered +3.5
at Temple34–20covered +3.5Wvs Massachusetts35–16covered −13
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13L
at Air Force26–35missed −1
at Air Force26–35missed −1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 23, 2:41 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is