Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
UConn
4–4 · Ours #67 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–20FinalWe had CONN 28 – TEM 32
Temple
2–6 · Ours #82 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TEM 60%CONN won
TEM 60%CONN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TEM −3.TEM −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.1 · CONN covered by 17.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.8.55.5final 54 · under by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TEM −3.5Lmatched the close
TEM −3.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Kalieb Osborne17/24 · 257 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3776th pct
- Comp %
- 70.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Ajani Sheppard19/25 · 260 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2565th pct
- Comp %
- 76.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UConnoffense | Played like CONN +6.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTemple | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 53.2%▲12.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.2%▼7.6 | 14th |
| 88th | +0.36▲0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.20 | 13th |
| 79th | +0.37▲0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.10 | 22nd |
| 89th | +0.36▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.29 | 11th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Templeoffense | defenseUConn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75th | 49.2%▲8.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.2%▼7.7 | 24th |
| 73rd | +0.21▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.19 | 27th |
| 61st | +0.17▲0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.03 | 39th |
| 80th | +0.26▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.41 | 20th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UConnCONN | TempleTEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2741st | Own 2313th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.5 pts61st | +0.6 pts66th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.773rd | −7.727th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts60th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CONN +6.7: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.4, kicking −0.1, 4th downs +0.1. | +6.779th | −6.721st |
Season so far
UConn4–4 · 119th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lafayette56–7covered −21
L
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5W
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3L
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5L
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5Wat Temple34–20covered +3.5
at Temple34–20covered +3.5W
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13L
at Air Force26–35missed −1
at Air Force26–35missed −1Temple2–6 · 85th-hardest schedule
Wvs Rhode Island38–14covered −14.5
L
vs Penn State9–27covered +24
vs Penn State9–27covered +24L
at Toledo48–49covered +5
at Toledo48–49covered +5L
vs Army17–21missed +3.5
vs Army17–21missed +3.5W
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5Lvs UConn20–34missed −3.5
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5L
vs Charlotte31–38missed −17.5QB change mid-game
vs Charlotte31–38missed −17.5QB change mid-gameL
at East Carolina9–17missed +4
at East Carolina9–17missed +4Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is