Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
UConn
4–4 · Ours #62 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–24FinalWe had CONN 32 – M-OH 27
Miami (OH)
5–3 · Ours #76 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CONN 62%M-OH won
CONN 62%M-OH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at M-OH −4.5.M-OH −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +4.8 · M-OH covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.4.52.5final 45 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Kalieb Osborne16/31 · 206 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0444th pct
- Comp %
- 51.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
David McComb19/29 · 312 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4884th pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UConnoffense | Played like M-OH +3.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMiami (OH) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.3%▼5.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.3%▲4.9 | 63rd |
| 61st | +0.13▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13 | 39th |
| 49th | +0.04▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.19 | 51st |
| 77th | +0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.27 | 24th |
| 15th | 2▼1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
| Miami (OH)offense | defenseUConn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | 41.0%▲4.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.0%▲2.1 | 54th |
| 67th | +0.18▲0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.15 | 33rd |
| 82nd | +0.41▲0.61 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.32 | 18th |
| 29th | −0.10▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.03 | 71st |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UConnCONN | Miami (OH)M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2415th | Own 3059th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.0 pts11th | −3.7 pts2nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.041st | +3.059th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts42nd | −0.1 pts38th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. M-OH +5.2: turnovers +5.2, field position +2.2, kicking −1.2, 4th downs −0.2, penalty first downs −0.8. | −5.227th | +5.274th |
Season so far
UConn4–4 · 119th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lafayette56–7covered −21
L
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5W
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3Lat Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5L
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5W
at Temple34–20covered +3.5
at Temple34–20covered +3.5W
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13L
at Air Force26–35missed −1
at Air Force26–35missed −1Miami (OH)5–3 · 130th-hardest schedule
L
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5Wvs Holy Cross45–7covered −30.5
L
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5Wvs UConn24–21covered −2.5
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5L
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5Wat Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5W
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5W
at Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5
at Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is