Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Purdue
3–4 · Ours #84 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–52FinalWe had PUR 20 – UCLA 35
UCLA
7–0 · Ours #34 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UCLA 81%UCLA won
UCLA 81%UCLA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UCLA −13.5.UCLA −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.9 · UCLA covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.1.52.5final 90 · over by 37.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UCLA −14Plost 0.5 to the close
UCLA −14Plost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Ryan Browne19/30 · 378 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4884th pct
- Comp %
- 63.3
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Nico Iamaleava19/31 · 276 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5487th pct
- Comp %
- 61.3
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Purdueoffense | Played like UCLA +4.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUCLA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72nd | 48.3%▲4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.3%▼17.3 | 28th |
| 91st | +0.42▲0.41 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.70 | 9th |
| 94th | +0.67▲0.61 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.67▼1.14 | 6th |
| 58th | +0.10▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.22 | 42nd |
| 15th | 2▼1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▼0.5 | 85th |
| UCLAoffense | defensePurdue | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91st | 57.5%▲13.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 57.5%▼8.7 | 9th |
| 93rd | +0.44▲0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.29 | 7th |
| 87th | +0.51▲0.59 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.51▼0.25 | 13th |
| 91st | +0.39▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.45 | 9th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| PurduePUR | UCLAUCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2314th | Own 3058th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts56th | −1.6 pts15th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 8096th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.340th | +3.360th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.4 pts98th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UCLA +6.1: turnovers +7.8, field position +2.2, kicking −1.4, 4th downs −1.8, penalty first downs −0.8. | −6.123rd | +6.177th |
Season so far
Purdue3–4 · 4th-hardest schedule
Wvs Indiana State44–19missed −35
L
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3Lat UCLA38–52missed +13.5
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5L
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5W
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5W
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5L
vs Washington26–38missed −3
vs Washington26–38missed −3UCLA7–0 · 75th-hardest schedule
W
at California45–24covered −2.5
at California45–24covered −2.5W
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5Wvs Purdue52–38covered −13.5
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5W
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5W
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5W
vs Wisconsin17–7covered −1.5
vs Wisconsin17–7covered −1.5W
vs Michigan State28–10covered −16
vs Michigan State28–10covered −16Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is