Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 4:15 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Nevada
3–4 · Ours #98Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
11–35Our projected score
AP #7UCLA
7–0 · Ours #16Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UCLA 93%
UCLA 93%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.UCLA −23oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −24.2 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −22
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.42.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 46.0 · opened 46.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.UCLA −22.5-110 FanDuel52% to cover · -1.0% EV
UCLA −22.5-110 FanDuel52% to cover · -1.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Luke DuncanJunior · 1 start this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.20
- Comp %
- 53.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
New starter last game
Ty DieffenbachJunior · 2 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.22
- Comp %
- 61.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| UCLAoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNevada | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54th | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.03 | 34th |
| 35th | 46.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 37.1% | 27th |
| 81st | +0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.04 | 35th |
| 24th | +0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.02 | 47th |
| 45th | 13.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 8.6% | 9th |
| Nevadaoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseUCLA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 114th | −0.01 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.17 | 3rd |
| 99th | 40.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 33.5% | 4th |
| 131st | −0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.26 | 4th |
| 43rd | +0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.08 | 18th |
| 85th | 11.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.1% | 61st |
Team stats
| UCLAUCLA | NevadaNEV | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −2.5122nd | +1.632nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +8.06th | −3.9121st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 60%14th | 43%113th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.7290th | 4.0864th |
| Time of possession | 32:423rd | 27:5492nd |
| Plays per game | 6851st | 6577th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +8 | −8 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 14 – 22 | 13 – 5 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 16.7%23rd | 14.6%63rd |
Season so far
Nevada3–4 · 137th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PK
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PKLvs Montana State7–20missed +4.5QB change mid-game
L
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5L
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5W
at UTEP30–13covered −10
at UTEP30–13covered −10L
at North Dakota State17–31covered +14.5
at North Dakota State17–31covered +14.5W
vs San José State28–13covered −5.5
vs San José State28–13covered −5.5UCLA7–0 · 78th-hardest schedule
W
at California45–24covered −2.5
at California45–24covered −2.5W
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5W
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5W
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5W
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5W
vs Wisconsin17–7covered −1.5
vs Wisconsin17–7covered −1.5W
vs Michigan State28–10covered −16
vs Michigan State28–10covered −16Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is