Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

San Diego State
3–5 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
−7.6
Rank
105
Résumé
109
Projected wins
4.4▼ 0.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on SDSU games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 4–2 · home 3–0, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +5.0 · closer than the market 4 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
4.43–5 banked, 3 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 3 games left add 1.4 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game6%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01108th
Success rate37.2%129th
Pass EPA+0.0197th
Rush EPA−0.02113th
Explosive rate11.2%101st
Quality-drive rate43.8%111th
Points per quality drive3.887th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.1096th
Success allowed49.3%134th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1399th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0787th
Explosive allowed11.0%53rd
Havoc rate10.6%129th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.630th
Turnover margin072nd · exp. −1.0
Field position margin−2.1 yd102nd
Hidden points / game−3.1gave up
Luck, wins−0.33.3 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected+5.5%17th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−7.6105th
Schedule played+1.555th
Schedule remaining−0.769th
Full schedule+0.866th
Pregame expected wins3.3of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 105th · −7.6Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
San Diego Stateoff −0.01 108thdef +0.10 allowed · 96th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
San Diego Stateoff −0.01 108thdef +0.10 allowed · 96th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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