Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

San Diego State

3–5 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
−7.6
Rank
105
Résumé
109
Projected wins
4.4▼ 0.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Portland StatePortland StateSDSU −31.5SDSU −38.5W 53–2072
Sat, Sep 129/12at UCLAUCLASDSU +10.3SDSU +11.0L 10–2826SDSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19James MadisonJMUSDSU +5.9SDSU −0.5L 13–2645JMU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at ToledoTOLSDSU +6.3SDSU −2.5L 16–4133TOL · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Texas StateTXSTSDSU +4.0SDSU +4.5W 31–2942SDSU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Oregon StateORSTSDSU +9.1SDSU +13.5L 14–6611SDSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Fresno StateFRESSDSU +6.2SDSU +8.5W 26–2363SDSU · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Colorado StateCSUSDSU −7.2SDSU −2.5L 49–5648SDSU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31Washington StateWSUSDSU −2.9SDSU −2.5SDSU −2.5Pass
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Boise StateBOISSDSU +15.0—wk 12

Model on SDSU games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 4–2 · home 3–0, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +5.0 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.43–5 banked, 3 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 3 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game6%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01108th
Success rate37.2%129th
Pass EPA+0.0197th
Rush EPA−0.02113th
Explosive rate11.2%101st
Quality-drive rate43.8%111th
Points per quality drive3.887th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.1096th
Success allowed49.3%134th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1399th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0787th
Explosive allowed11.0%53rd
Havoc rate10.6%129th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.630th
Turnover margin072nd · exp. −1.0
Field position margin−2.1 yd102nd
Hidden points / game−3.1gave up
Luck, wins−0.33.3 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected+5.5%17th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−7.6105th
Schedule played+1.555th
Schedule remaining−0.769th
Full schedule+0.866th
Pregame expected wins3.3of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 105th · −7.6Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUSDSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
San Diego Stateoff −0.01 108thdef +0.10 allowed · 96th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.