Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
San Diego State
3–5 · Ours #58 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–28FinalWe had SDSU 20 – UCLA 30
UCLA
7–0 · Ours #42 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UCLA 74%UCLA won
UCLA 74%UCLA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UCLA −10.UCLA −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.3 · UCLA covered by 4.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.1.54final 38 · under by 16
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SDSU +11Llost 2.5 to the close
SDSU +11Llost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jayden Denegal6/17 · 45 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.702nd pct
- Comp %
- 35.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Nico Iamaleava14/23 · 151 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1923rd pct
- Comp %
- 60.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San Diego Stateoffense | Played like UCLA +22.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUCLA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | 32.1%▼4.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.1%▲1.6 | 82nd |
| 7th | −0.33▼0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.18 | 93rd |
| 3rd | −0.74▼0.81 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.74▲0.51 | 97th |
| 29th | −0.10▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.01 | 71st |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.7 | 59th |
| UCLAoffense | defenseSan Diego State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | 43.9%▼2.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.9%▲7.7 | 42nd |
| 56th | +0.09▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.06 | 45th |
| 25th | −0.19▼0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.44 | 75th |
| 80th | +0.26▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.18 | 20th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San Diego StateSDSU | UCLAUCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2521st | Own 3792nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts76th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5643rd | 6672nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −15.513th | +15.587th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts22nd | −0.4 pts29th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UCLA +1.6: field position +4.5, kicking −0.7, 4th downs +0.2, penalty first downs −2.3. | −1.641st | +1.659th |
Season so far
San Diego State3–5 · 58th-hardest schedule
Wvs Portland State53–20missed −38.5
Lat UCLA10–28missed +13.5
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5L
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5L
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5W
vs Texas State31–29covered +10
vs Texas State31–29covered +10L
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5W
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7L
at Colorado State49–56missed +1
at Colorado State49–56missed +1UCLA7–0 · 75th-hardest schedule
W
at California45–24covered −2.5
at California45–24covered −2.5Wvs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5W
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5W
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5W
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5W
vs Wisconsin17–7covered −1.5
vs Wisconsin17–7covered −1.5W
vs Michigan State28–10covered −16
vs Michigan State28–10covered −16Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is