Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
AP #8Texas Tech
7–1 · Ours #16 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–37FinalWe had TTU 32 – CIN 23
Cincinnati
5–3 · Ours #63 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TTU 72%CIN won
TTU 72%CIN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TTU −11.5.TTU −11.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.4 · CIN covered by 24.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.8.56.5final 61 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CIN +10.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
CIN +10.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Will Hammond24/37 · 207 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0138th pct
- Comp %
- 64.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
JC French IV19/29 · 172 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0949th pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas Techoffense | Played like CIN +0.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCincinnati | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48th | 41.3%▼6.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.3%▲4.6 | 52nd |
| 51st | +0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.11 | 49th |
| 33rd | −0.10▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.42 | 67th |
| 80th | +0.25▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.19 | 21st |
| 15th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
| Cincinnatioffense | defenseTexas Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 44.9%▲3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.9%▼6.5 | 39th |
| 44th | +0.01▼0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.12 | 56th |
| 26th | −0.18▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.15 | 74th |
| 72nd | +0.20▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.38 | 28th |
| 15th | 2▼1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▼0.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas TechTTU | CincinnatiCIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2954th | Own 3269th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.7 pts66th | +1.2 pts79th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7591st | 6978th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −12.217th | +12.283rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts87th | −0.1 pts39th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TTU +1.5: turnovers −2.6, field position −0.8, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +1.1, return touchdowns +4.2. | +1.557th | −1.543rd |
Season so far
Texas Tech7–1 · 61st-hardest schedule
Wvs Abilene Christian33–10missed −44.5
W
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5W
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5W
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5W
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5W
vs Arizona State53–25covered −16.5
vs Arizona State53–25covered −16.5Lat Cincinnati24–37missed −11.5
at Cincinnati24–37missed −11.5W
vs Arizona34–26covered −3.5
vs Arizona34–26covered −3.5Cincinnati5–3 · 33rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Boston College34–15covered −7
vs Boston College34–15covered −7Wvs Western Carolina62–10covered −36
W
vs Miami (OH)35–31missed −14.5
vs Miami (OH)35–31missed −14.5W
vs Kansas State31–26covered +6
vs Kansas State31–26covered +6Lat Arizona7–34missed +7
at Arizona7–34missed +7L
at West Virginia42–45missed +1.5
at West Virginia42–45missed +1.5Wvs Texas Tech37–24covered +11.5
vs Texas Tech37–24covered +11.5L
vs Utah25–49missed +7
vs Utah25–49missed +7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is