Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Sam Houston
1–7 · Ours #116 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–49FinalWe had SHSU 10 – TTU 39
AP #11Texas Tech
7–1 · Ours #29 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TTU 96%TTU won
TTU 96%TTU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TTU −37.5.TTU −34.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −29.2 · TTU covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.8.56.5final 63 · over by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Landyn Locke23/36 · 195 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1725th pct
- Comp %
- 63.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Will Hammond17/29 · 224 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2022nd pct
- Comp %
- 58.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sam Houstonoffense | Played like TTU +17.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29th | 36.4%▲1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.4%▲3.7 | 71st |
| 8th | −0.30▼0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.26 | 92nd |
| 12th | −0.40▼0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.42 | 88th |
| 26th | −0.13▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.01 | 74th |
| 4th | 3▼2.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.0 | 96th |
| Texas Techoffense | defenseSam Houston | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97th | 64.2%▲20.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 64.2%▼25.1 | 3rd |
| 31st | −0.07▼0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.10 | 69th |
| 25th | −0.20▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.17 | 75th |
| 55th | +0.08▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▲0.01 | 45th |
| 4th | 3▼2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.8 | 96th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sam HoustonSHSU | Texas TechTTU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3585th | Own 2629th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.8 pts12th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5540th | 5336th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −27.43rd | +27.497th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | +0.4 pts75th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 2100th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TTU +10.8: turnovers +2.6, field position −3.3, kicking +1.3, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +8.3. | −10.88th | +10.892nd |
Season so far
Sam Houston1–7 · 95th-hardest schedule
L
at Troy21–24covered +16.5
at Troy21–24covered +16.5L
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5Wvs Nicholls59–0covered −21
Lat Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5L
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5L
vs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1
vs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1L
vs New Mexico State24–30missed +3
vs New Mexico State24–30missed +3L
at Missouri State3–24missed +6
at Missouri State3–24missed +6Texas Tech7–1 · 61st-hardest schedule
Wvs Abilene Christian33–10missed −44.5
W
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5W
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5Wvs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5W
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5W
vs Arizona State53–25covered −16.5
vs Arizona State53–25covered −16.5L
at Cincinnati24–37missed −11.5
at Cincinnati24–37missed −11.5W
vs Arizona34–26covered −3.5
vs Arizona34–26covered −3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is