Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Oregon State

5–2 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
+5.6
Rank
42
Résumé
49
Projected wins
7.4▲ 4.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at HoustonHOUORST +13.1ORST +20.5L 20–3338ORST · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Texas TechTTUORST +18.2ORST +25.5L 24–3543ORST · W
Sat, Sep 199/19MontanaMontanaORST −28.6ORST −17.5W 52–1792
Sat, Sep 269/26at UTEPUTEPORST −5.4ORST −11.0W 33–779UTEP · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Colorado StateCSUORST −6.9ORST −6.5W 56–2685ORST · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10San Diego StateSDSUORST −9.1ORST −13.5W 66–1490SDSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Washington StateWSUORST −15.1ORST −18.0W 48–3052WSU · Push
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Fresno StateFRESORST −4.4ORST −6.0FRES +5.5Pass
Sat, Nov 2111/21Utah StateUSUORST −15.3—wk 12

Model on ORST games: 3–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +5.3 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.45–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.3
Bowl (6+)82%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game71%
Win conference31%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2410th
Success rate50.4%9th
Pass EPA+0.2816th
Rush EPA+0.1718th
Explosive rate15.6%15th
Quality-drive rate57.7%25th
Points per quality drive5.33rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0468th
Success allowed40.4%58th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0678th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0163rd
Explosive allowed9.2%15th
Havoc rate15.3%43rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.081st
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +6.0
Field position margin−2.3 yd109th
Hidden points / game+0.7banked
Luck, wins+0.05.0 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−14.8%137th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+5.642nd
Schedule played−4.6104th
Schedule remaining+1.864th
Full schedule−2.077th
Pregame expected wins3.9of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 42nd · +5.6Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUORSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Oregon Stateoff +0.24 10thdef +0.04 allowed · 68th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.