Week 9 report · Sat, Oct 31 · 2026 Week 9
AP #22Arizona
6–2 · Ours #16 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–34FinalWe had ARIZ 26 – TTU 25
AP #13Texas Tech
7–1 · Ours #25 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARIZ 53%TTU won
ARIZ 53%TTU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TTU −4.5.TTU −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1.3 · TTU covered by 4.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.5.54.5final 60 · over by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARIZ +3.5Lmatched the close
ARIZ +3.5Lmatched the closeThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arizonaoffense | Played like TTU +5.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | 38.7%▼9.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.7%▲0.8 | 61st |
| 62nd | +0.14▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.22 | 38th |
| 71st | +0.28▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.34 | 29th |
| 23rd | −0.16▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.04 | 77th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼2.2 | 21st |
| Texas Techoffense | defenseArizona | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.3%▼4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.3%▼5.9 | 47th |
| 72nd | +0.21▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.21 | 28th |
| 55th | +0.12▲0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.13 | 45th |
| 81st | +0.26▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.29 | 19th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ArizonaARIZ | Texas TechTTU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2740th | Own 3374th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7591st | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.833rd | +5.867th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.1 pts38th | +0.1 pts60th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARIZ +0.4: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.9, 4th downs −0.3. | +0.452nd | −0.448th |
Season so far
Arizona6–2 · 74th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northern Arizona35–7missed −33
L
at BYU17–28missed +7
at BYU17–28missed +7W
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5W
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5W
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7W
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5W
vs Iowa State39–3covered −12
vs Iowa State39–3covered −12Lat Texas Tech26–34missed +3.5
at Texas Tech26–34missed +3.5Texas Tech7–1 · 59th-hardest schedule
Wvs Abilene Christian33–10missed −44.5
W
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5W
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5W
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5W
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5W
vs Arizona State53–25covered −16.5
vs Arizona State53–25covered −16.5Lat Cincinnati24–37missed −11.5
at Cincinnati24–37missed −11.5Wvs Arizona34–26covered −3.5
vs Arizona34–26covered −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is