Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
AP #13Texas Tech
7–1 · Ours #15 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–24FinalWe had TTU 34 – ORST 16
Oregon State
5–2 · Ours #114 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TTU 86%TTU won
TTU 86%TTU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TTU −26.5.TTU −25.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −18.2 · ORST covered by 14.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.8.52.5final 59 · over by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ORST +25.5Wmatched the close
ORST +25.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Will Hammond20/27 · 189 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2465th pct
- Comp %
- 74.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Braden Atkinson31/51 · 413 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0633rd pct
- Comp %
- 60.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas Techoffense | Played like TTU +6.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOregon State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.5%▼5.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.5%▼2.1 | 47th |
| 51st | +0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.06 | 50th |
| 63rd | +0.20▲0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.19 | 37th |
| 35th | −0.06▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.04 | 65th |
| 41st | 1▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| Oregon Stateoffense | defenseTexas Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13th | 29.6%▼27.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.6%▲11.9 | 87th |
| 35th | −0.05▼0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.05▼0.04 | 65th |
| 42nd | −0.03▼0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.03▼0.04 | 59th |
| 27th | −0.12▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12 | 73rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.4 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas TechTTU | Oregon StateORST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3585th | Own 2630th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −0.9 pts23rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.780th | −10.720th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | 0.0 pts59th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TTU +6.6: field position +3.3, kicking +0.7, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs +2.3. | +6.679th | −6.621st |
Season so far
Texas Tech7–1 · 61st-hardest schedule
Wvs Abilene Christian33–10missed −44.5
Wat Oregon State35–24missed −25.5
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5W
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5W
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5W
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5W
vs Arizona State53–25covered −16.5
vs Arizona State53–25covered −16.5L
at Cincinnati24–37missed −11.5
at Cincinnati24–37missed −11.5W
vs Arizona34–26covered −3.5
vs Arizona34–26covered −3.5Oregon State5–2 · 101st-hardest schedule
Lat Houston20–33covered +21
at Houston20–33covered +21Lvs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5Wvs Montana52–17covered −17.5
W
at UTEP33–7covered −11
at UTEP33–7covered −11W
at Colorado State56–26covered −7
at Colorado State56–26covered −7W
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5W
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is