Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Arizona State
4–3 · Ours #73 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–53FinalWe had ASU 17 – TTU 32
AP #10Texas Tech
7–1 · Ours #20 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TTU 80%TTU won
TTU 80%TTU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TTU −13.5.TTU −16.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14 · TTU covered by 11.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.0.50final 78 · over by 28
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ASU +14.5Llost 2.0 to the close
ASU +14.5Llost 2.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Mikey Keene25/34 · 256 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2566th pct
- Comp %
- 73.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Replaced Cutter Boley in Q3
Will Hammond18/26 · 232 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4984th pct
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arizona Stateoffense | Played like TTU +26.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 32.4%▼7.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.4%▲8.5 | 82nd |
| 32nd | −0.07▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▼0.02 | 68th |
| 68th | +0.23▲0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.35 | 32nd |
| 8th | −0.35▼0.34 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.28 | 92nd |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▼0.2 | 85th |
| Texas Techoffense | defenseArizona State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90th | 56.9%▲11.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 56.9%▼19.1 | 10th |
| 88th | +0.37▲0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.43 | 12th |
| 85th | +0.49▲0.50 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.56 | 15th |
| 79th | +0.25▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.26 | 21st |
| 79th | 0▲1.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arizona StateASU | Texas TechTTU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 202nd | Own 4699th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts59th | +0.1 pts51st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3714th | 5133rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.827th | +7.873rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.1 pts39th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TTU +15.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +9.2, kicking −0.2, 4th downs +0.9, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −15.12nd | +15.198th |
Season so far
Arizona State4–3 · 32nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Morgan State70–7covered −43.5
L
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5W
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5L
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5W
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21Lat Texas Tech25–53missed +16.5QB change mid-game
at Texas Tech25–53missed +16.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Kansas State28–17covered +1
vs Kansas State28–17covered +1Texas Tech7–1 · 61st-hardest schedule
Wvs Abilene Christian33–10missed −44.5
W
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5W
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5W
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5W
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5Wvs Arizona State53–25covered −16.5
vs Arizona State53–25covered −16.5L
at Cincinnati24–37missed −11.5
at Cincinnati24–37missed −11.5W
vs Arizona34–26covered −3.5
vs Arizona34–26covered −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is