Week 0 report · Sat, Aug 29 · 2026 Week 1
North Carolina
4–3 · Ours #69 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
15–10FinalWe had UNC 22 – TCU 33
TCU
4–4 · Ours #34 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TCU 75%UNC won
TCU 75%UNC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TCU −7.5.TCU −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.8 · UNC covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.8.46.5final 25 · under by 21.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TCU −7.5Lmatched the close
TCU −7.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Billy Edwards Jr.16/28 · 232 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2915th pct
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Jaden Craig20/32 · 175 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1724th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Carolinaoffense | Played like UNC +7.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTCU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | 44.6%▲1.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.6%▼9.8 | 40th |
| 18th | −0.17▼0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.10 | 82nd |
| 18th | −0.29▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.11 | 82nd |
| 39th | −0.03▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.03 | 61st |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| TCUoffense | defenseNorth Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 34.8%▼5.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.8%▲9.6 | 75th |
| 7th | −0.31▼0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.38 | 93rd |
| 27th | −0.17▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.24 | 73rd |
| 4th | −0.46▼0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.46▲0.51 | 96th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North CarolinaUNC | TCUTCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2738th | Own 3586th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.7 pts13th | +0.4 pts59th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5643rd | 6978th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.882nd | −11.818th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts85th | −1.2 pts4th |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 199th | 049th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TCU +0.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.0, kicking +1.5, 4th downs −2.4, penalty first downs −1.5, safeties −2.9. | −0.249th | +0.251st |
Season so far
North Carolina4–3 · 15th-hardest schedule
Wat TCU15–10covered +7.5
at TCU15–10covered +7.5Wvs East Tennessee State35–3missed −35.5
L
at Clemson20–28missed +3
at Clemson20–28missed +3L
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21W
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5W
at Duke24–20covered +3
at Duke24–20covered +3L
vs Syracuse30–31missed −9.5
vs Syracuse30–31missed −9.5TCU4–4 · 38th-hardest schedule
Lvs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5Wvs Grambling63–7covered −44.5
W
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19L
at UCF13–21missed −3.5
at UCF13–21missed −3.5L
vs BYU10–17missed +6
vs BYU10–17missed +6W
at Baylor17–6covered +5
at Baylor17–6covered +5L
vs West Virginia20–24missed −11
vs West Virginia20–24missed −11W
vs Kansas22–16missed −6.5
vs Kansas22–16missed −6.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Aug 29, 11:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is