Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
TCU
4–4 · Ours #54 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–6FinalWe had TCU 20 – BAY 29
Baylor
5–3 · Ours #29 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BAY 70%TCU won
BAY 70%TCU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BAY −6.5.BAY −5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.2 · TCU covered by 16
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.1.50final 23 · under by 27
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BAY −6Llost 1.0 to the close
BAY −6Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jaden Craig21/36 · 294 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1050th pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
DJ Lagway21/52 · 255 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0930th pct
- Comp %
- 40.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TCUoffense | Played like TCU +3.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBaylor | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 35.4%▼4.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.4%▲0.6 | 74th |
| 27th | −0.10▼0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.03 | 74th |
| 54th | +0.10▼0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.21 | 46th |
| 5th | −0.43▼0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.36 | 96th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
| Bayloroffense | defenseTCU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | 25.0%▼16.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 25.0%▲13.1 | 95th |
| 22nd | −0.14▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.06 | 78th |
| 34th | −0.09▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▼0.12 | 66th |
| 14th | −0.24▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.27 | 86th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TCUTCU | BaylorBAY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3169th | Own 214th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts53rd | −0.7 pts25th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 8498th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +13.184th | −13.116th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +1.2 pts96th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TCU +3.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.7, kicking +0.7, 4th downs −1.6, penalty first downs −2.3. | +3.166th | −3.134th |
Season so far
TCU4–4 · 38th-hardest schedule
L
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5Wvs Grambling63–7covered −44.5
W
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19L
at UCF13–21missed −3.5
at UCF13–21missed −3.5L
vs BYU10–17missed +6
vs BYU10–17missed +6Wat Baylor17–6covered +5
at Baylor17–6covered +5L
vs West Virginia20–24missed −11
vs West Virginia20–24missed −11W
vs Kansas22–16missed −6.5
vs Kansas22–16missed −6.5Baylor5–3 · 51st-hardest schedule
L
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5Wvs Prairie View A&M44–3covered −37.5
W
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20W
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5W
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5Lvs TCU6–17missed −5
vs TCU6–17missed −5Lat Kansas24–25push +1
at Kansas24–25push +1Wat UCF41–9covered −2.5
at UCF41–9covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is