Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Arkansas State
4–4 · Ours #86 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–31FinalWe had ARST 19 – TCU 36
TCU
4–4 · Ours #52 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TCU 84%TCU won
TCU 84%TCU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TCU −20.5.TCU −19oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17 · TCU covered by 5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.4.56final 38 · under by 18
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARST +20.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
ARST +20.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Trey Owens11/24 · 133 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.564th pct
- Comp %
- 45.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Jaden Craig20/28 · 336 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8296th pct
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansas Stateoffense | Played like TCU +19.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTCU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 33.3%▼15.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▲3.4 | 79th |
| 11th | −0.24▼0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.18 | 89th |
| 5th | −0.56▼0.81 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.56▲0.43 | 95th |
| 56th | +0.08▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.11 | 44th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| TCUoffense | defenseArkansas State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.5%▲7.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.5%▲1.0 | 37th |
| 59th | +0.12▲0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.02 | 41st |
| 93rd | +0.64▲0.61 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.64▼0.52 | 7th |
| 12th | −0.27▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.45 | 88th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansas StateARST | TCUTCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2636th | Own 2742nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.3 pts56th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5133rd | 6672nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −20.68th | +20.692nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −2.0 pts1st | +1.2 pts97th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TCU +1.5: turnovers −2.6, field position +0.4, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +4.3, penalty first downs −0.8. | −1.543rd | +1.557th |
Season so far
Arkansas State4–4 · 93rd-hardest schedule
L
at Memphis24–42missed +11
at Memphis24–42missed +11Wvs West Georgia52–7covered −31.5
Lat TCU7–31missed +19
at TCU7–31missed +19W
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5L
at Louisiana20–23covered +5
at Louisiana20–23covered +5L
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3W
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5W
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5TCU4–4 · 38th-hardest schedule
L
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5Wvs Grambling63–7covered −44.5
Wvs Arkansas State31–7covered −19
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19L
at UCF13–21missed −3.5
at UCF13–21missed −3.5L
vs BYU10–17missed +6
vs BYU10–17missed +6W
at Baylor17–6covered +5
at Baylor17–6covered +5L
vs West Virginia20–24missed −11
vs West Virginia20–24missed −11W
vs Kansas22–16missed −6.5
vs Kansas22–16missed −6.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is