Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:15 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Stanford
4–4 · Ours #111Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–39Our projected score
Louisville
4–3 · Ours #27Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.LOU 91%
LOU 91%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.LOU −22.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −21.9 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −21
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.59oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 57.0 · opened 61.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.STAN +22.5-108 DraftKings50% to cover · -3.4% EV
STAN +22.5-108 DraftKings50% to cover · -3.4% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Davis WarrenSenior · 8 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0973rd
- Comp %
- 60.4
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
Lincoln KienholzJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3411th
- Comp %
- 67.8
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Louisvilleoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseStanford | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd | +0.29 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.19 | 128th |
| 21st | 48.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 46.5% | 127th |
| 9th | +0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.18 | 112th |
| 5th | +0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.20 | 129th |
| 1st | 18.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 14.8% | 126th |
| Stanfordoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseLouisville | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96th | +0.03 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.11 | 103rd |
| 110th | 39.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.3% | 83rd |
| 69th | +0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.19 | 115th |
| 117th | −0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.03 | 69th |
| 84th | 11.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.0% | 55th |
Team stats
| LouisvilleLOU | StanfordSTAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.373rd | −1.2108th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −1.090th | −2.3109th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 43%114th | 44%105th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.4934th | 4.0667th |
| Time of possession | 26:30115th | 28:2481st |
| Plays per game | 62113th | 6575th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +4 | −2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 9 – 13 | 9 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 12.2%109th | 10.7%127th |
Season so far
Stanford4–4 · 14th-hardest schedule
W
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5L
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5L
at Duke7–35missed +10
at Duke7–35missed +10W
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3L
at Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5
at Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5L
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5Wvs Elon34–7missed −34
W
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5Louisville4–3 · 12th-hardest schedule
L
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5Wvs Villanova59–13covered −38.5
W
vs SMU41–31covered −3
vs SMU41–31covered −3Lvs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5Lat NC State28–31missed −5
at NC State28–31missed −5W
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5W
at Syracuse34–26missed −14.5
at Syracuse34–26missed −14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is