Week 8 report · Fri, Oct 23 · 2026 Week 8
NC State
4–4 · Ours #84 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–31FinalWe had NCSU 32 – STAN 23
Stanford
4–5 · Ours #112 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NCSU 73%STAN won
NCSU 73%STAN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NCSU −7.5.NCSU −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.8 · STAN covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.1.54.5final 59 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NCSU −7Lbeat the close by 0.5
NCSU −7Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
CJ Bailey17/31 · 256 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3877th pct
- Comp %
- 54.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Davis Warren22/37 · 303 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3475th pct
- Comp %
- 59.5
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NC Stateoffense | Played like NCSU +2.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseStanford | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲9.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▲1.6 | 22nd |
| 76th | +0.25▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.25▲0.05 | 24th |
| 80th | +0.38▲0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.10 | 20th |
| 59th | +0.10▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.20 | 41st |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Stanfordoffense | defenseNC State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.3%▲10.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.3%▲2.9 | 41st |
| 71st | +0.20▲0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▲0.11 | 29th |
| 77th | +0.34▲0.45 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.34▲0.03 | 23rd |
| 48th | +0.02▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.27 | 52nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.9 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NC StateNCSU | StanfordSTAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2524th | Own 2416th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.4 pts59th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6466th | 7081st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.068th | −6.032nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | +0.6 pts84th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NCSU +0.4: field position +0.4, kicking −0.3, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs +0.8. | +0.452nd | −0.448th |
Season so far
NC State4–4 · 67th-hardest schedule
L
at Virginia8–34missed +4
at Virginia8–34missed +4Wvs Richmond73–0covered −33.5
L
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3W
vs App State41–31missed −13
vs App State41–31missed −13W
vs Louisville31–28covered +5
vs Louisville31–28covered +5L
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5Lat Stanford28–31missed −7.5
at Stanford28–31missed −7.5W
vs California31–10covered −9.5
vs California31–10covered −9.5Stanford4–5 · 10th-hardest schedule
W
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5L
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5L
at Duke7–35missed +10
at Duke7–35missed +10W
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3Lat Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5
at Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5L
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5Wvs Elon34–7missed −34
Wvs NC State31–28covered +7.5
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5Lat Louisville24–52missed +22.5
at Louisville24–52missed +22.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 23, 7:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is