Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Stanford
4–5 · Ours #99 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–35FinalWe had STAN 22 – DUKE 33
Duke
6–2 · Ours #38 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.DUKE 75%DUKE won
DUKE 75%DUKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at DUKE −9.5.DUKE −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.1 · DUKE covered by 18
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.5.51final 42 · under by 9
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.DUKE −9.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
DUKE −9.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Davis Warren18/32 · 151 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2319th pct
- Comp %
- 56.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Walker Eget14/24 · 202 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2364th pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Stanfordoffense | Played like DUKE +20.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseDuke | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 34.1%▼1.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.1%▲7.2 | 77th |
| 18th | −0.18▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.19 | 82nd |
| 22nd | −0.24▼0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.29 | 78th |
| 36th | −0.05▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.04 | 64th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| Dukeoffense | defenseStanford | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 48.4%▲9.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.4%▲3.4 | 27th |
| 69th | +0.19▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▲0.12 | 31st |
| 67th | +0.23▲0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▲0.08 | 33rd |
| 68th | +0.17▲0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▲0.13 | 32nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| StanfordSTAN | DukeDUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2528th | Own 3168th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4422nd | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −20.38th | +20.392nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts20th | −0.1 pts39th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DUKE +4.2: field position +2.0, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs +1.5. | −4.230th | +4.270th |
Season so far
Stanford4–5 · 10th-hardest schedule
W
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5L
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5Lat Duke7–35missed +10
at Duke7–35missed +10W
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3L
at Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5
at Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5L
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5Wvs Elon34–7missed −34
W
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5L
at Louisville24–52missed +22.5
at Louisville24–52missed +22.5Duke6–2 · 86th-hardest schedule
W
vs Tulane17–3covered −9
vs Tulane17–3covered −9W
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5Wvs Stanford35–7covered −10
vs Stanford35–7covered −10Wvs William & Mary62–7covered −43.5
Lat Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5L
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3W
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5W
vs Boston College47–2covered −7
vs Boston College47–2covered −7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is