Week 9 report · Sat, Oct 31 · 2026 Week 9
AP #19SMU
6–2 · Ours #41 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–30FinalWe had SMU 33 – SYR 25
Syracuse
4–4 · Ours #65 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SMU 69%SYR won
SMU 69%SYR wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SMU −9.5.SMU −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.7 · SYR covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.7.58.5final 57 · under by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SYR +9.5Wmatched the close
SYR +9.5Wmatched the closeThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| SMUoffense | Played like SMU +3.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSyracuse | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 47.7%▲0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.7%▼4.0 | 29th |
| 78th | +0.27▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.21 | 22nd |
| 89th | +0.57▲0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.57▼0.61 | 11th |
| 18th | −0.21▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.38 | 82nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Syracuseoffense | defenseSMU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 47.9%▲6.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.9%▼8.6 | 29th |
| 66th | +0.17▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.15 | 34th |
| 68th | +0.24▲0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.21 | 32nd |
| 58th | +0.10▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.09 | 41st |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| SMUSMU | SyracuseSYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2313th | Own 3269th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.354th | −1.346th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +1.2 pts96th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SYR +7.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.9, 4th downs +1.5. | −7.119th | +7.181st |
Season so far
SMU6–2 · 76th-hardest schedule
W
at Florida State27–24push −3
at Florida State27–24push −3Wvs UC Davis56–10covered −32
L
at Louisville31–41missed +3
at Louisville31–41missed +3W
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5W
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5W
vs Virginia23–13push −10
vs Virginia23–13push −10W
vs California59–20covered −19
vs California59–20covered −19Lat Syracuse27–30missed −9.5
at Syracuse27–30missed −9.5Syracuse4–4 · 46th-hardest schedule
Wvs New Hampshire66–3covered −35.5
Lvs California18–21missed −3.5
vs California18–21missed −3.5L
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5W
at UConn42–41missed −6.5
at UConn42–41missed −6.5Lat Virginia25–28covered +14
at Virginia25–28covered +14Lvs Louisville26–34covered +14.5
vs Louisville26–34covered +14.5W
at North Carolina31–30covered +9.5
at North Carolina31–30covered +9.5Wvs SMU30–27covered +9.5
vs SMU30–27covered +9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is