Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Virginia
4–5 · Ours #56 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–23FinalWe had UVA 22 – SMU 28
AP #24SMU
6–2 · Ours #45 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SMU 64%SMU won
SMU 64%SMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SMU −8.SMU −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6 · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.8.52final 36 · under by 16
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UVA +8.5Llost 1.5 to the close
UVA +8.5Llost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Beau Pribula13/22 · 137 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1823rd pct
- Comp %
- 59.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Kevin Jennings23/36 · 246 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2464th pct
- Comp %
- 63.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Virginiaoffense | Played like SMU +9.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSMU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.5%▼2.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.5%▼2.6 | 51st |
| 40th | −0.01▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.04 | 61st |
| 26th | −0.18▼0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.25 | 74th |
| 60th | +0.11▲0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.13 | 40th |
| 79th | 0▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
| SMUoffense | defenseVirginia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 44.9%▼3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.9%▼3.8 | 39th |
| 66th | +0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.06 | 34th |
| 68th | +0.24▼0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.17 | 32nd |
| 56th | +0.08▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▲0.05 | 44th |
| 79th | 0▲1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| VirginiaUVA | SMUSMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2630th | Own 3060th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.2 pts96th | +1.6 pts88th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5336th | 6978th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.331st | +6.369th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts63rd | +1.3 pts97th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SMU +10.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.5, kicking −0.4, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −10.78th | +10.792nd |
Season so far
Virginia4–5 · 39th-hardest schedule
W
vs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
L
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5W
vs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20L
at Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1W
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14Lat SMU13–23push +10
at SMU13–23push +10L
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5L
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5SMU6–2 · 76th-hardest schedule
Wat Florida State27–24push −3
at Florida State27–24push −3Wvs UC Davis56–10covered −32
L
at Louisville31–41missed +3
at Louisville31–41missed +3W
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5W
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5Wvs Virginia23–13push −10
vs Virginia23–13push −10W
vs California59–20covered −19
vs California59–20covered −19Lat Syracuse27–30missed −9.5
at Syracuse27–30missed −9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 11:20 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is