Week 1 report · Mon, Sep 7 · 2026 Week 1
AP #19SMU
6–2 · Ours #22 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–24FinalWe had SMU 29 – FSU 27
Florida State
3–4 · Ours #31 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SMU 56%SMU won
SMU 56%SMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SMU −3.5.SMU −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.3 · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.6.55final 51 · under by 4
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SMU −2Wbeat the close by 1.0
SMU −2Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Kevin Jennings24/34 · 416 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6693rd pct
- Comp %
- 70.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Ashton Daniels12/23 · 123 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1252nd pct
- Comp %
- 52.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| SMUoffense | Played like SMU +14.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | 55.2%▲9.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.2%▼12.2 | 12th |
| 76th | +0.25▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.07 | 24th |
| 92nd | +0.62▲0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.62▼0.34 | 8th |
| 20th | −0.18▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.25 | 79th |
| 4th | 3▼2.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.6 | 96th |
| Florida Stateoffense | defenseSMU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34th | 37.3%▼5.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▲2.4 | 67th |
| 40th | −0.01▼0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.04 | 60th |
| 55th | +0.12▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.10 | 45th |
| 31st | −0.09▼0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.11 | 69th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| SMUSMU | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2845th | Own 2740th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.9 pts12th | +1.1 pts77th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6774th | 6774th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +14.886th | −14.814th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.9 pts91st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FSU +12.4: turnovers +7.8, field position −0.3, kicking +2.1, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs +1.5. | −12.46th | +12.495th |
Season so far
SMU6–2 · 76th-hardest schedule
Wat Florida State27–24push −3
at Florida State27–24push −3Wvs UC Davis56–10covered −32
L
at Louisville31–41missed +3
at Louisville31–41missed +3W
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5W
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5W
vs Virginia23–13push −10
vs Virginia23–13push −10W
vs California59–20covered −19
vs California59–20covered −19L
at Syracuse27–30missed −9.5
at Syracuse27–30missed −9.5Florida State3–4 · 20th-hardest schedule
W
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31Lvs SMU24–27push +3
vs SMU24–27push +3L
at Alabama36–50covered +19
at Alabama36–50covered +19Wvs Central Arkansas34–7missed −46
Wvs Virginia38–7covered +1
vs Virginia38–7covered +1Lat Louisville20–44missed +3.5
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5L
at Miami35–43covered +19.5
at Miami35–43covered +19.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 7, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is