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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs CLEM · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:00 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Florida State

3–4 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+7.0
Rank
36
Résumé
81
Projected wins
6.1▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29New Mexico StateNMSUFSU −26.7FSU −31.0W 34–1764NMSU · W
Mon, Sep 79/7SMUSMUFSU +2.3FSU +2.0L 24–2732SMU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at AlabamaALAFSU +23.6FSU +19.0L 36–5038ALA · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Central ArkansasCentral ArkansasFSU −40.1FSU −46.0W 34–774
Sat, Oct 310/3VirginiaUVAFSU +2.4FSU +2.5W 38–784FSU · W
Fri, Oct 910/9at LouisvilleLOUFSU +3.3FSU +4.5L 20–4431FSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at MiamiMIAFSU +21.1FSU +21.0L 35–4356MIA · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31ClemsonCLEMFSU −8.8FSU −5.0FSU −4.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at Boston CollegeBCFSU −7.0—wk 10
Fri, Nov 1311/13at PittsburghPITTFSU +1.2—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21NC StateNCSUFSU −10.4—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27FloridaFLAFSU −1.4—wk 13

Model on FSU games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 2–1 · home 1–2, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.1 · closer than the market 1 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.13–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.1
Bowl (6+)39%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 3.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1923rd
Success rate43.4%66th
Pass EPA+0.2330th
Rush EPA+0.1528th
Explosive rate15.6%16th
Quality-drive rate56.6%36th
Points per quality drive4.725th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.18125th
Success allowed44.4%109th
Pass EPA allowed+0.32134th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0680th
Explosive allowed13.7%110th
Havoc rate12.4%105th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.242nd
Turnover margin−294th · exp. −4.0
Field position margin+2.4 yd42nd
Hidden points / game+1.2banked
Luck, wins−0.93.9 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 5–2
Rush rate over expected+2.5%37th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+7.036th
Schedule played+7.218th
Schedule remaining+1.863rd
Full schedule+4.842nd
Pregame expected wins3.3of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 36th · +7.0Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUFSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Florida Stateoff +0.19 23rddef +0.18 allowed · 125th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.