Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 4:00 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
New Mexico
6–1 · Ours #39Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–14Our projected score
San José State
4–4 · Ours #113Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UNM 85%
UNM 85%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.UNM −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17.3 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −14.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.43oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 45.0 · opened 41.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.UNM −14.5-110 FanDuel51% to cover · -2.4% EV
UNM −14.5-110 FanDuel51% to cover · -2.4% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Toa Fa'avaeSophomore · 5 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.07
- Comp %
- 54.9
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 13
Robert McDanielFreshman · 1 start this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.75
- Comp %
- 46.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Took over mid-game last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| San José Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseNew Mexico | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 129th | −0.07 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.27 | 1st |
| 122nd | 38.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 31.7% | 1st |
| 113th | −0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.24 | 6th |
| 130th | −0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.30 | 2nd |
| 106th | 11.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.0% | 54th |
| New Mexicooffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseSan José State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | +0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.02 | 58th |
| 103rd | 40.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.3% | 84th |
| 92nd | +0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.03 | 38th |
| 68th | +0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.07 | 85th |
| 47th | 13.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.8% | 45th |
Team stats
| San José StateSJSU | New MexicoUNM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.566th | +1.050th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −2.1104th | +12.11st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 42%121st | 59%16th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.35116th | 3.9575th |
| Time of possession | 26:12117th | 32:305th |
| Plays per game | 6574th | 6395th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | +13 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 12 – 12 | 11 – 24 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.9%31st | 21.0%1st |
Season so far
New Mexico6–1 · 124th-hardest schedule
W
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-game
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-gameWvs Mercyhurst70–7covered −42.5
L
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21W
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5W
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5W
at Hawai'i21–10missed −14.5
at Hawai'i21–10missed −14.5W
vs North Dakota State21–16covered −4.5
vs North Dakota State21–16covered −4.5San José State4–4 · 117th-hardest schedule
L
at USC26–42covered +38.5
at USC26–42covered +38.5W
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5Wvs Cal Poly30–20missed −21.5
L
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5Wat Hawai'i20–16covered +3
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3L
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4Wat UTEP24–11covered −7
at UTEP24–11covered −7L
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-game
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-gameModel cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is