Week 6 report · Fri, Oct 9 · 2026 Week 6
Wyoming
5–3 · Ours #126 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–13FinalWe had WYO 19 – SJSU 25
San José State
4–5 · Ours #107 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SJSU 64%WYO won
SJSU 64%WYO wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SJSU −6.SJSU −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.8 · WYO covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 43.9.42.5final 29 · under by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WYO +7Wbeat the close by 3.0
WYO +7Wbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
Tyler Hughes16/24 · 114 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.534th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Luke Weaver26/38 · 251 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2716th pct
- Comp %
- 68.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wyomingoffense | Played like SJSU +2.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSan José State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43rd | 40.3%▼4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.3%▲3.3 | 57th |
| 29th | −0.08▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.09 | 71st |
| 6th | −0.53▼0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.53▲0.46 | 94th |
| 78th | +0.24▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.20 | 22nd |
| 15th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.9 | 85th |
| San José Stateoffense | defenseWyoming | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 48.4%▲14.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.4%▼1.6 | 27th |
| 28th | −0.09▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.26 | 72nd |
| 20th | −0.27▼0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.35 | 80th |
| 76th | +0.22▲0.48 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.22▲0.02 | 24th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲1.0 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| WyomingWYO | San José StateSJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 4197th | Own 2951st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.1 pts78th | −1.5 pts15th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7285th | 6260th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −0.648th | +0.652nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.3 pts98th | −0.4 pts26th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WYO +2.7: turnovers −2.6, field position +4.3, kicking +1.8, 4th downs +2.3, penalty first downs −3.1. | +2.765th | −2.736th |
Season so far
Wyoming5–3 · 138th-hardest schedule
L
at Colorado State13–35missed +3
at Colorado State13–35missed +3Wvs Northern Colorado21–13missed −23
L
at Central Michigan10–24missed −1
at Central Michigan10–24missed −1W
vs Hawai'i27–10covered +2
vs Hawai'i27–10covered +2L
at North Dakota State0–28missed +17
at North Dakota State0–28missed +17Wat San José State16–13covered +4
at San José State16–13covered +4W
vs Northern Illinois41–23covered −7
vs Northern Illinois41–23covered −7W
vs Air Force28–14covered +6
vs Air Force28–14covered +6San José State4–5 · 99th-hardest schedule
L
at USC26–42covered +38.5
at USC26–42covered +38.5W
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5Wvs Cal Poly30–20missed −21.5
L
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5Wat Hawai'i20–16covered +3
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3Lvs Wyoming13–16missed −4
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4W
at UTEP24–11covered −7
at UTEP24–11covered −7L
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-game
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-gameL
vs New Mexico16–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico16–21covered +14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 9, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is