Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
San José State
4–5 · Ours #108 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–28FinalWe had SJSU 20 – NEV 28
Nevada
3–4 · Ours #100 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NEV 68%NEV won
NEV 68%NEV wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NEV −5.5.NEV −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.6 · NEV covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.4.46final 41 · under by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NEV −5.5Wmatched the close
NEV −5.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Robert McDaniel6/13 · 48 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.751st pct
- Comp %
- 46.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Relieved in Q4 by Luke Weaver
Luke Duncan18/29 · 178 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2060th pct
- Comp %
- 62.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San José Stateoffense | Played like NEV +16.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNevada | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th | 23.2%▼14.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 23.2%▲13.2 | 96th |
| 7th | −0.32▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.31 | 93rd |
| 11th | −0.41▼0.41 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.41▲0.46 | 89th |
| 18th | −0.21▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.16 | 82nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Nevadaoffense | defenseSan José State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | 44.6%▲3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.6%▼1.6 | 40th |
| 27th | −0.10▼0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.11 | 73rd |
| 57th | +0.14▲0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.30 | 43rd |
| 11th | −0.28▼0.55 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.40 | 89th |
| 41st | 1▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San José StateSJSU | NevadaNEV | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3377th | Own 3058th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.6 pts88th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5643rd | 7489th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −19.59th | +19.591st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.7 pts15th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SJSU +5.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.2, kicking +1.1, 4th downs +0.9. | +5.977th | −5.923rd |
Season so far
San José State4–5 · 99th-hardest schedule
L
at USC26–42covered +38.5
at USC26–42covered +38.5W
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5Wvs Cal Poly30–20missed −21.5
L
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5W
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3L
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4W
at UTEP24–11covered −7
at UTEP24–11covered −7Lat Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-game
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-gameL
vs New Mexico16–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico16–21covered +14.5Nevada3–4 · 135th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PK
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PKLvs Montana State7–20missed +4.5QB change mid-game
L
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5L
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5Wat UTEP30–13covered −10
at UTEP30–13covered −10L
at North Dakota State17–31covered +14.5
at North Dakota State17–31covered +14.5Wvs San José State28–13covered −5.5
vs San José State28–13covered −5.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is