Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
San José State
4–5 · Ours #115 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–11FinalWe had SJSU 28 – UTEP 23
UTEP
1–7 · Ours #133 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SJSU 63%SJSU won
SJSU 63%SJSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SJSU −9.SJSU −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5 · SJSU covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.5.45.5final 35 · under by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UTEP +8.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
UTEP +8.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Daniel Rolovich12/23 · 193 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0444th pct
- Comp %
- 52.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Raymond Moore III19/28 · 195 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0731st pct
- Comp %
- 67.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
Replaced EJ Colson Jr. in Q2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San José Stateoffense | Played like UTEP +0.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUTEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 43.1%▲8.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.1%▲9.0 | 45th |
| 61st | +0.13▲0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▲0.10 | 39th |
| 49th | +0.04▲0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.31 | 51st |
| 71st | +0.19▲0.44 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.06 | 29th |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| UTEPoffense | defenseSan José State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44th | 40.5%▲8.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.5%▲3.1 | 56th |
| 62nd | +0.13▲0.33 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.15 | 38th |
| 33rd | −0.10▲0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.10▼0.03 | 67th |
| 92nd | +0.40▲0.51 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.39 | 8th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San José StateSJSU | UTEPUTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2312th | Own 216th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts55th | −3.4 pts3rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 8498th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.572nd | −7.528th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.9 pts92nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SJSU +2.0: field position +0.6, kicking +2.6, 4th downs −1.2. | +2.061st | −2.039th |
Season so far
San José State4–5 · 99th-hardest schedule
L
at USC26–42covered +38.5
at USC26–42covered +38.5W
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5Wvs Cal Poly30–20missed −21.5
L
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5W
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3L
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4Wat UTEP24–11covered −7
at UTEP24–11covered −7L
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-game
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-gameL
vs New Mexico16–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico16–21covered +14.5UTEP1–7 · 46th-hardest schedule
L
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41Wvs Texas Southern51–10covered −27
L
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5L
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11Lat New Mexico7–61missed +23.5
at New Mexico7–61missed +23.5Lvs Nevada13–30missed +10
vs Nevada13–30missed +10Lvs San José State11–24missed +7QB change mid-game
vs San José State11–24missed +7QB change mid-gameL
at North Dakota State7–31missed +23.5
at North Dakota State7–31missed +23.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is