Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
North Dakota State
7–2 · Ours #47 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–10FinalWe had NDSU 29 – SAC 20
Sacramento State
2–7 · Ours #132 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NDSU 71%NDSU won
NDSU 71%NDSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NDSU −27.5.NDSU −25oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.1 · SAC covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.3.50.5final 41 · under by 9.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SAC +27.5Wbeat the close by 2.5
SAC +27.5Wbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Nathan Hayes14/24 · 210 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2767th pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Jackson Sharman25/40 · 238 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0242nd pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Dakota Stateoffense | Played like NDSU +2.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSacramento State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 31.5%▼8.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.5%▲12.6 | 83rd |
| 33rd | −0.06▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.16 | 67th |
| 73rd | +0.29▲0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.17 | 27th |
| 11th | −0.28▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.37 | 89th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Sacramento Stateoffense | defenseNorth Dakota State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40th | 39.0%▲3.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.0%▼3.7 | 60th |
| 15th | −0.20▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.06 | 85th |
| 33rd | −0.11▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.11▼0.23 | 67th |
| 9th | −0.33▼0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.34 | 91st |
| 15th | 2▼1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.9 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Dakota StateNDSU | Sacramento StateSAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2416th | Own 2632nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts56th | +0.3 pts53rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5438th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.231st | +6.269th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.9 pts10th | −0.7 pts15th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NDSU +9.2: turnovers +5.2, field position −0.8, 4th downs −0.2, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | +9.286th | −9.214th |
Season so far
North Dakota State7–2 · 124th-hardest schedule
W
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
W
at Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2Wat Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25W
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17L
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5W
vs Nevada31–17missed −14.5
vs Nevada31–17missed −14.5L
at New Mexico16–21missed +4.5
at New Mexico16–21missed +4.5W
vs UTEP31–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP31–7covered −23.5Sacramento State2–7 · 131st-hardest schedule
L
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9Wvs Mississippi Valley State52–0covered −38.5
L
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5Lvs North Dakota State10–31covered +25
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25L
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5L
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9L
vs Ohio7–48missed +17
vs Ohio7–48missed +17L
at Ball State17–34missed +14.5
at Ball State17–34missed +14.5W
vs Kent State31–10covered +7
vs Kent State31–10covered +7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is