Week 9 report · Fri, Oct 30 · 2026 Week 9
Kent State
3–6 · Ours #132 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–31FinalWe had KENT 28 – SAC 22
Sacramento State
2–7 · Ours #138 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KENT 66%SAC won
KENT 66%SAC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KENT −10.5.KENT −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.4 · SAC covered by 28
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.4.47.5final 41 · under by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SAC +10.5Wbeat the close by 3.5
SAC +10.5Wbeat the close by 3.5The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kent Stateoffense | Played like SAC +20.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSacramento State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | 26.7%▼6.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.7%▲18.1 | 92nd |
| 4th | −0.42▼0.33 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.42▲0.58 | 96th |
| 5th | −0.60▼0.59 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.60▲0.84 | 95th |
| 31st | −0.09▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.16 | 69th |
| 4th | 3▼2.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.4 | 96th |
| Sacramento Stateoffense | defenseKent State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 31.8%▼4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.8%▲17.7 | 83rd |
| 41st | −0.01▲0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.14 | 59th |
| 59th | +0.16▲0.49 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.01 | 41st |
| 26th | −0.13▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.24 | 74th |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kent StateKENT | Sacramento StateSAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2739th | Own 3893rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 6672nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.340th | +3.360th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts22nd | +0.6 pts85th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SAC +19.9: turnovers +10.4, field position +3.8, 4th downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −19.91st | +19.9100th |
Season so far
Kent State3–6 · 91st-hardest schedule
L
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5Wvs Wofford36–15covered −10
L
at Ohio State3–59missed +52
at Ohio State3–59missed +52W
vs Ball State26–13covered −3
vs Ball State26–13covered −3L
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5L
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14L
at South Florida2–29missed +21
at South Florida2–29missed +21W
vs Akron35–20covered −3
vs Akron35–20covered −3Lat Sacramento State10–31missed −7
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7Sacramento State2–7 · 131st-hardest schedule
L
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9Wvs Mississippi Valley State52–0covered −38.5
L
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5L
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25L
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5L
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9Lvs Ohio7–48missed +17
vs Ohio7–48missed +17Lat Ball State17–34missed +14.5
at Ball State17–34missed +14.5Wvs Kent State31–10covered +7
vs Kent State31–10covered +7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 30, 10:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is