Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Ohio
6–2 · Ours #86 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
48–7FinalWe had OHIO 32 – SAC 17
Sacramento State
2–7 · Ours #136 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OHIO 83%OHIO won
OHIO 83%OHIO wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OHIO −14.OHIO −17oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.7 · OHIO covered by 24
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.2.46.5final 55 · over by 8.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.OHIO −14.5Wbeat the close by 2.5
OHIO −14.5Wbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Nick Poulos11/14 · 165 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5587th pct
- Comp %
- 78.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Jackson Sharman11/21 · 69 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.496th pct
- Comp %
- 52.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ohiooffense | Played like OHIO +37.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSacramento State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | 55.3%▲8.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.3%▼14.6 | 12th |
| 83rd | +0.32▲0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.27 | 17th |
| 76th | +0.33▲0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.22 | 25th |
| 86th | +0.32▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.31 | 14th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Sacramento Stateoffense | defenseOhio | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th | 24.0%▼13.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 24.0%▲19.4 | 95th |
| 5th | −0.40▼0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.47 | 96th |
| 10th | −0.44▼0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.44▲0.60 | 91st |
| 13th | −0.25▼0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.30 | 87th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| OhioOHIO | Sacramento StateSAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2419th | Own 2633rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.1 pts95th | −2.0 pts11th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3814th | 253rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +22.093rd | −22.07th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 899th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.7 pts15th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OHIO +11.5: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.7, kicking +2.9, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs +5.4. | +11.593rd | −11.57th |
Season so far
Ohio6–2 · 136th-hardest schedule
L
at Nebraska21–49missed +24
at Nebraska21–49missed +24W
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2L
at South Alabama36–41covered +7
at South Alabama36–41covered +7Wvs Stonehill35–7missed −32.5
W
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5W
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5Wat Sacramento State48–7covered −17
at Sacramento State48–7covered −17W
vs Eastern Michigan24–20missed −10
vs Eastern Michigan24–20missed −10Sacramento State2–7 · 131st-hardest schedule
Lat Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9Wvs Mississippi Valley State52–0covered −38.5
L
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5L
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25L
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5L
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9Lvs Ohio7–48missed +17
vs Ohio7–48missed +17L
at Ball State17–34missed +14.5
at Ball State17–34missed +14.5Wvs Kent State31–10covered +7
vs Kent State31–10covered +7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is