Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Sacramento State
2–7 · Ours #138 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–34FinalWe had SAC 19 – BALL 31
Ball State
3–5 · Ours #128 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BALL 78%BALL won
BALL 78%BALL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BALL −10.5.BALL −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.3 · BALL covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.4.51final 51 · push
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BALL −11.5Wbeat the close by 3.0
BALL −11.5Wbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
Jackson Sharman17/27 · 187 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0931st pct
- Comp %
- 63.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Keldric Luster14/26 · 234 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1959th pct
- Comp %
- 53.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sacramento Stateoffense | Played like BALL +22.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBall State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 29.3%▼7.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.3%▲18.8 | 88th |
| 15th | −0.20▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.48 | 85th |
| 27th | −0.17▲0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.61 | 73rd |
| 13th | −0.26▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.33 | 87th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
| Ball Stateoffense | defenseSacramento State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | 47.1%▲9.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.1%▼5.2 | 32nd |
| 68th | +0.18▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.11 | 32nd |
| 79th | +0.38▲0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.27 | 21st |
| 51st | +0.05▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05 | 49th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sacramento StateSAC | Ball StateBALL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 192nd | Own 3892nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.1 pts77th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 7081st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −16.013th | +16.087th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts72nd | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BALL +4.2: turnovers −2.6, field position +6.5, kicking −0.8, 4th downs −0.5, penalty first downs +1.5. | −4.230th | +4.270th |
Season so far
Sacramento State2–7 · 131st-hardest schedule
L
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9Wvs Mississippi Valley State52–0covered −38.5
L
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5L
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25L
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5L
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9L
vs Ohio7–48missed +17
vs Ohio7–48missed +17Lat Ball State17–34missed +14.5
at Ball State17–34missed +14.5W
vs Kent State31–10covered +7
vs Kent State31–10covered +7Ball State3–5 · 78th-hardest schedule
L
at Ohio State3–56missed +50
at Ohio State3–56missed +50Wvs Stony Brook41–17covered −13.5
L
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5Lat Kent State13–26missed +3
at Kent State13–26missed +3L
vs Toledo24–39covered +21
vs Toledo24–39covered +21L
at Northwestern14–45covered +35
at Northwestern14–45covered +35Wat Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5
at Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5Wvs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is