Iowa
6–2 · Ours #13Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–23Our projected score
AP #20Northwestern
6–2 · Ours #28Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.IOWA 55%
IOWA 55%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.NU −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1.8 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −2.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.42.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 47.1 · first seen 42.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.IOWA +2.5-105 DraftKings52% to cover · +1.0% EV
IOWA +2.5-105 DraftKings52% to cover · +1.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Hank BrownSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0292nd
- Comp %
- 61.1
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Took over mid-game last game
Aidan ChilesSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3118th
- Comp %
- 70.3
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 13
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Northwesternoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseIowa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | +0.25 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.06 | 26th |
| 19th | 49.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 35.6% | 16th |
| 22nd | +0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.10 | 91st |
| 8th | +0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.22 | 3rd |
| 2nd | 18.1% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.0% | 24th |
| Iowaoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseNorthwestern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82nd | +0.05 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.04 | 68th |
| 51st | 44.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.5% | 82nd |
| 84th | +0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.03 | 41st |
| 71st | +0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.11 | 106th |
| 83rd | 11.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.3% | 82nd |
Team stats
| NorthwesternNU | IowaIOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.436th | +1.632nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −0.585th | +4.421st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 60%12th | 47%91st |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.8612th | 4.4832nd |
| Time of possession | 28:4869th | 28:4272nd |
| Plays per game | 6489th | 62109th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +10 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 8 – 18 | 9 – 8 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.4%39th | 16.7%23rd |
Season so far
Iowa6–2 · 42nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31W
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14Wvs Northern Iowa55–0covered −37.5
W
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5L
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5W
at Washington41–24covered +3
at Washington41–24covered +3L
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-game
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5Northwestern6–2 · 56th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5L
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5W
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35W
at Michigan State24–21missed −7
at Michigan State24–21missed −7W
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5L
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is