Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
AP #25Northwestern
6–2 · Ours #26 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–21FinalWe had NU 30 – MSU 22
Michigan State
2–6 · Ours #75 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NU 69%NU won
NU 69%NU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NU −9.5.NU −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.9 · MSU covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.2.49.5final 45 · under by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MSU +8.5Wbeat the close by 1.5
MSU +8.5Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Aidan Chiles18/28 · 226 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1455th pct
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Alessio Milivojevic19/30 · 216 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0435th pct
- Comp %
- 63.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Northwesternoffense | Played like NU +2.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMichigan State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | 42.3%▼8.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.3%▲0.1 | 48th |
| 52nd | +0.06▼0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06 | 48th |
| 51st | +0.07▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.08 | 49th |
| 52nd | +0.06▼0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.05 | 48th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
| Michigan Stateoffense | defenseNorthwestern | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | 43.9%▲2.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.9%▼1.5 | 42nd |
| 38th | −0.02▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.06 | 62nd |
| 39th | −0.04▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04 | 61st |
| 44th | 0.00▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.08 | 56th |
| 41st | 1▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NorthwesternNU | Michigan StateMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3165th | Own 3583rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.2 pts27th | −2.5 pts5th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7183rd | 5745th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +4.163rd | −4.137th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts30th | −0.5 pts23rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NU +3.1: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.3, kicking +1.6, 4th downs +0.2. | +3.166th | −3.134th |
Season so far
Northwestern6–2 · 56th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5L
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5W
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35Wat Michigan State24–21missed −7
at Michigan State24–21missed −7W
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5L
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5Michigan State2–6 · 16th-hardest schedule
W
vs Toledo30–20push −10
vs Toledo30–20push −10W
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5L
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29L
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6L
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5L
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5Lvs Northwestern21–24covered +7
vs Northwestern21–24covered +7L
at UCLA10–28missed +16
at UCLA10–28missed +16Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 11:20 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is