Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
AP #20Northwestern
6–1 · Ours #25Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–27Our projected score
Oregon
4–3 · Ours #29Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ORE 64%
ORE 64%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.ORE −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.8 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −3.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.48oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 49.1 · opened 50.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.ORE −3.5-110 FanDuel51% to cover · -2.5% EV
ORE −3.5-110 FanDuel51% to cover · -2.5% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Aidan ChilesSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3118th
- Comp %
- 70.3
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 13
Dylan RaiolaJunior · 3 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.02106th
- Comp %
- 64.9
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Oregonoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNorthwestern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103rd | +0.01 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | 0.00 | 53rd |
| 90th | 41.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.3% | 85th |
| 94th | +0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.10 | 24th |
| 103rd | +0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.13 | 113th |
| 64th | 12.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.9% | 47th |
| Northwesternoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseOregon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | +0.25 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.10 | 13th |
| 11th | 50.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 36.6% | 24th |
| 21st | +0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.16 | 15th |
| 7th | +0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.04 | 39th |
| 2nd | 18.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.4% | 31st |
Team stats
| OregonORE | NorthwesternNU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.618th | +1.635th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +1.361st | 0.077th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 47%92nd | 61%10th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.3547th | 5.098th |
| Time of possession | 27:06109th | 27:42102nd |
| Plays per game | 7023rd | 63104th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | +10 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 14 – 14 | 7 – 17 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 16.6%24th | 14.7%59th |
Season so far
Northwestern6–1 · 70th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5L
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5W
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35W
at Michigan State24–21missed −7
at Michigan State24–21missed −7W
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5Oregon4–3 · 8th-hardest schedule
W
vs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25L
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
W
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameL
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5W
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5L
at Illinois10–21missed −10
at Illinois10–21missed −10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is