Week 4 report · Fri, Sep 25 · 2026 Week 4
Northwestern
6–2 · Ours #49 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–29FinalWe had NU 16 – IU 38
AP #5Indiana
7–1 · Ours #5 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.IU 90%IU won
IU 90%IU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at IU −22.5.IU −20.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −21.8 · NU covered by 14.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.3.49.5final 52 · over by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Aidan Chiles21/29 · 285 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4078th pct
- Comp %
- 72.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Josh Hoover19/29 · 201 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0949th pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Northwesternoffense | Played like NU +0.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIndiana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.8%▼9.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.8%▼6.6 | 50th |
| 81st | +0.29▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.42 | 20th |
| 76th | +0.33▲0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.45 | 25th |
| 76th | +0.23▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.36 | 24th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Indianaoffense | defenseNorthwestern | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76th | 49.3%▲7.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.3%▼7.8 | 24th |
| 71st | +0.20▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.20 | 29th |
| 53rd | +0.09▼0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.16 | 47th |
| 83rd | +0.29▲0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.25 | 17th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NorthwesternNU | IndianaIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 192nd | Own 2739th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.9 pts73rd | +1.1 pts79th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5540th | 6978th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −1.845th | +1.855th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts80th | −0.1 pts38th |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. IU +7.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.7, kicking +0.2, 4th downs −0.9, safeties +2.9. | −7.618th | +7.682nd |
Season so far
Northwestern6–2 · 56th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5Lat Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5W
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35W
at Michigan State24–21missed −7
at Michigan State24–21missed −7W
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5L
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5Indiana7–1 · 34th-hardest schedule
W
vs North Texas52–16missed −40
vs North Texas52–16missed −40Wvs Howard55–0missed −58
W
vs Western Kentucky38–0missed −44.5
vs Western Kentucky38–0missed −44.5Wvs Northwestern29–23missed −20.5
vs Northwestern29–23missed −20.5Wat Rutgers47–15covered −24.5
at Rutgers47–15covered −24.5W
at Nebraska20–17missed −9
at Nebraska20–17missed −9L
vs Ohio State15–19missed +2.5
vs Ohio State15–19missed +2.5W
at Michigan13–6missed −7.5
at Michigan13–6missed −7.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 25, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is