Illinois
5–3 · Ours #56Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–31Our projected score
AP #20Northwestern
6–2 · Ours #28Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.NU 68%
NU 68%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.ILL −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +7.7 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −3.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.52.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 55.0 · first seen 52.5
Our call · No call7+ points from the market: past that size our college numbers haven't held up, so no call on the spread.7+ points from the market
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Michael Clayton IIFreshman · 1 start this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.34
- Comp %
- 64.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
New starter last game
Aidan ChilesSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3118th
- Comp %
- 70.3
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 13
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Northwesternoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseIllinois | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | +0.25 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.19 | 127th |
| 19th | 49.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 45.9% | 123rd |
| 22nd | +0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.27 | 127th |
| 8th | +0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.10 | 99th |
| 2nd | 18.1% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.0% | 55th |
| Illinoisoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseNorthwestern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | +0.17 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.04 | 68th |
| 30th | 47.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.5% | 82nd |
| 39th | +0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.03 | 41st |
| 36th | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.11 | 106th |
| 50th | 13.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.3% | 82nd |
Team stats
| NorthwesternNU | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.436th | −0.394th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −0.585th | −0.787th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 60%12th | 55%43rd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.8612th | 4.3348th |
| Time of possession | 28:4869th | 24:42128th |
| Plays per game | 6489th | 62114th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +10 | 0 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 8 – 18 | 7 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.4%39th | 11.3%124th |
Season so far
Illinois5–3 · 41st-hardest schedule
W
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5L
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5Wvs Southern Illinois48–10covered −35.5
L
at Ohio State19–42covered +26
at Ohio State19–42covered +26L
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5W
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5W
vs Oregon21–10covered +10
vs Oregon21–10covered +10W
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5Northwestern6–2 · 56th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5L
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5W
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35Wat Michigan State24–21missed −7
at Michigan State24–21missed −7W
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5Lat Oregon26–34missed +3.5
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is