Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Rutgers
2–6 · Ours #105 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–42FinalWe had RUTG 20 – NU 40
AP #24Northwestern
6–2 · Ours #27 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NU 89%NU won
NU 89%NU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NU −16.NU −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.9 · NU covered by 13.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 60.3.59final 56 · under by 3
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NU −15.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
NU −15.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
AJ Surace7/18 · 64 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3710th pct
- Comp %
- 38.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q3 by Sean Ashenfelder
Aidan Chiles19/25 · 219 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3374th pct
- Comp %
- 76.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Rutgersoffense | Played like NU +23.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorthwestern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 33.3%▼9.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▲10.9 | 79th |
| 25th | −0.12▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.17 | 75th |
| 2nd | −0.76▼0.87 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.76▲0.83 | 98th |
| 95th | +0.48▲0.56 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.48▼0.48 | 5th |
| 4th | 3▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.8 | 96th |
| Northwesternoffense | defenseRutgers | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | 55.7%▲7.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.7%▼7.6 | 11th |
| 80th | +0.28▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.07 | 20th |
| 75th | +0.33▲0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.10 | 25th |
| 79th | +0.25▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.04 | 21st |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| RutgersRUTG | NorthwesternNU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2520th | Own 3480th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.6 pts88th | −2.0 pts11th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −24.05th | +24.095th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts28th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NU +5.7: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.3, kicking −2.5, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs −0.8. | −5.724th | +5.776th |
Season so far
Rutgers2–6 · 40th-hardest schedule
L
vs Massachusetts21–37missed −29
vs Massachusetts21–37missed −29L
at Boston College21–28missed +3
at Boston College21–28missed +3L
vs USC35–42covered +21
vs USC35–42covered +21Wvs Howard58–7covered −42
L
vs Indiana15–47missed +24.5QB change mid-game
vs Indiana15–47missed +24.5QB change mid-gameW
at Maryland37–30covered +6
at Maryland37–30covered +6Lat Northwestern14–42missed +14.5
at Northwestern14–42missed +14.5L
vs Michigan21–28covered +16.5
vs Michigan21–28covered +16.5Northwestern6–2 · 56th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5Lat Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5W
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35W
at Michigan State24–21missed −7
at Michigan State24–21missed −7Wvs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5L
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is