Week 5 report · Fri, Oct 2 · 2026 Week 5
Penn State
3–4 · Ours #15 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–34FinalWe had PSU 27 – NU 24
Northwestern
6–2 · Ours #36 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.PSU 57%NU won
PSU 57%NU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PSU −2.5.PSU −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.9 · NU covered by 23.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.3.46.5final 47 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.PSU −2.5Lmatched the close
PSU −2.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Rocco Becht26/41 · 243 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 63.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Aidan Chiles10/14 · 93 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.428th pct
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Penn Stateoffense | Played like NU +16.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorthwestern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.5%▲0.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.5%▲1.4 | 51st |
| 27th | −0.10▼0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.15 | 73rd |
| 28th | −0.16▼0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.13 | 72nd |
| 47th | +0.01▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.07 | 54th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.7 | 85th |
| Northwesternoffense | defensePenn State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91st | 57.8%▲9.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 57.8%▼23.3 | 9th |
| 67th | +0.17▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.26 | 33rd |
| 11th | −0.42▼0.78 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.42▲0.17 | 89th |
| 89th | +0.36▲0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.34 | 11th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Penn StatePSU | NorthwesternNU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2634th | Own 2846th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.0 pts10th | +0.2 pts51st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5336th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.723rd | +9.777th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts78th | −0.7 pts15th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NU +1.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.6, kicking +1.5, 4th downs −1.6, penalty first downs −1.5. | −1.642nd | +1.659th |
Season so far
Penn State3–4 · 63rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5W
at Temple27–9missed −24
at Temple27–9missed −24W
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40L
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10Lat Northwestern13–34missed −2.5
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5L
vs USC23–31missed +1
vs USC23–31missed +1L
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5Northwestern6–2 · 56th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5L
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5Wvs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35W
at Michigan State24–21missed −7
at Michigan State24–21missed −7W
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5
vs Rutgers42–14covered −14.5L
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5
at Oregon26–34missed +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 2, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is