Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
North Dakota State
7–2 · Ours #37 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–32FinalWe had NDSU 35 – AF 24
Air Force
6–2 · Ours #112 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NDSU 75%NDSU won
NDSU 75%NDSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NDSU −6.5.NDSU −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.3 · NDSU covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.2.47.5final 70 · over by 22.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NDSU −5.5Wlost 3.5 to the close
NDSU −5.5Wlost 3.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Nathan Hayes15/23 · 228 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0443rd pct
- Comp %
- 65.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Liam Szarka5/10 · 103 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2465th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q4 by Evan Medders
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Dakota Stateoffense | Played like AF +14.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAir Force | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.3%▼0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.3%▲4.1 | 63rd |
| 52nd | +0.06▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.06 | 48th |
| 48th | +0.04▼0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.07 | 52nd |
| 56th | +0.08▲0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▲0.08 | 44th |
| 41st | 1▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
| Air Forceoffense | defenseNorth Dakota State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 50.8%▲1.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.8%▼17.2 | 21st |
| 82nd | +0.31▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.52 | 18th |
| 86th | +0.50▲0.93 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.50▼0.93 | 14th |
| 78th | +0.24▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.31 | 22nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Dakota StateNDSU | Air ForceAF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3790th | Own 2524th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.6 pts89th | −2.7 pts4th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.322nd | +10.378th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.1 pts95th | +1.3 pts98th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NDSU +2.7: field position +4.1, kicking +3.1, 4th downs −0.3, return touchdowns −4.2. | +2.764th | −2.736th |
Season so far
North Dakota State7–2 · 124th-hardest schedule
W
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
Wat Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2W
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25W
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17L
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5W
vs Nevada31–17missed −14.5
vs Nevada31–17missed −14.5L
at New Mexico16–21missed +4.5
at New Mexico16–21missed +4.5W
vs UTEP31–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP31–7covered −23.5Air Force6–2 · 117th-hardest schedule
Wvs Duquesne34–0covered −31.5
Lvs North Dakota State32–38missed +2
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2Wat Nevada36–33missed −5.5
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5W
vs Navy14–9covered −3
vs Navy14–9covered −3W
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7Wvs UNLV41–31covered +1
vs UNLV41–31covered +1Lat Wyoming14–28missed −6QB change mid-game
at Wyoming14–28missed −6QB change mid-gameW
vs UConn35–26covered +1
vs UConn35–26covered +1Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is